FK Progress Super Nova - Grobinas SC prediction 10 October 2026

FK Progress Super Nova vs Grobinas SC prediction for October 10, 2026, points to a home win in this Virsliga clash. FK Progress Super Nova enters the match as the clear favorite with a 50% win probability, while Grobinas SC faces an uphill battle at just 20%.

Team Form

FK Progress Super Nova's last five matches show mixed results: two losses, two wins, and a draw. They fell 0-1 away to Ogre United and 0-1 at home to Riga FC, but bounced back with a 1-0 home victory over Tukums 2000 and a 1-0 away win at Jelgava. Their most recent outing was a 1-1 draw at Auda. Grobinas SC has recorded one win, two draws, and two losses in their last five. They drew 1-1 at Tukums 2000 and 0-0 at home to Jelgava, lost 0-1 at Auda, beat BFC Daugavpils 1-0 at home, and were beaten 1-3 at Liepajas Metalurgs. Both sides have been inconsistent, but FK Progress Super Nova's two recent wins give them a slight momentum edge.

Head-to-Head Record

The head-to-head record is overwhelmingly in favor of FK Progress Super Nova. In 14 previous meetings, FK Progress Super Nova has won 10, with 4 draws, and Grobinas SC has never won. The last five encounters underline this dominance: FK Progress Super Nova won 2-0 at home in July 2026, 2-0 away in May 2026, and 1-0 away in April 2026, after two goalless draws in 2025. Grobinas SC has failed to score in four of those five matches.

League Table Positions

FK Progress Super Nova sits 6th in the Virsliga with 35 points from 30 games (10 wins, 5 draws, 15 losses). Grobinas SC is 8th with 26 points from 31 games (5 wins, 11 draws, 15 losses). The nine-point gap reflects FK Progress Super Nova's superiority. Home and away records are similarly modest: FK Progress Super Nova's home form is 3 wins, 3 draws, 9 losses, while Grobinas SC's away record is 2 wins, 5 draws, 9 losses. Neither team excels in these conditions, but the hosts have a marginal advantage.

Win Probability: FK Progress Super Nova or Grobinas SC?

FK Progress Super Nova has a 50% chance of winning, the draw is at 30%, and Grobinas SC has a 20% chance. These probabilities are derived from bookmaker odds (average implied probabilities: home 31.9%, draw 38.2%, away 29.9%) and adjusted for the extreme head-to-head record (10-0-4) and recent form. The H2H dominance alone shifts the balance heavily toward the home side. Based on the stats, FK Progress Super Nova is the more likely winner.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers see a tight contest, with home win odds ranging from 2.55 to 2.96, draw odds from 1.98 to 3.17, and away win odds from 2.72 to 3.10. FK Progress Super Nova is the slight favorite across the market. Our prediction: a home win for FK Progress Super Nova, given their historical edge and slightly better form. The draw is a plausible outcome, but Grobinas SC's poor H2H record makes an away victory unlikely.