SBV Excelsior Rotterdam - Groningen prediction 11 October 2026

Our SBV Excelsior Rotterdam vs Groningen prediction for this Eredivisie match on October 11, 2026, at 15:45 in the Van Donge De Roo Stadion points to a contest where neither side can be clearly separated. Based on odds, head-to-head data, and recent form, Groningen is a marginal favourite with a 34% win probability, while SBV Excelsior Rotterdam has a 33% chance and the draw also sits at 33%.

Team Form

SBV Excelsior Rotterdam's last five matches show mixed results: a 2-2 draw at Ajax, a 1-2 home loss to Utrecht, a 2-2 draw at NEC Nijmegen, a 3-0 win at Willem II, and a 2-1 home win over Sparta Rotterdam. That gives them two wins, two draws, and one loss in this period. Groningen’s recent run includes a 3-0 home win over Zwolle, a 1-1 draw at Go Ahead Eagles, a 2-2 home draw with Twente, a 2-3 home loss to Fortuna Sittard, and a 1-5 defeat at PSV Eindhoven. Their form reads one win, two draws, and two losses. Excelsior therefore enters the game in slightly better shape.

Head-to-Head Record

In 19 total meetings, Groningen has dominated with 13 wins, Excelsior has 4, and there have been 2 draws. Looking at the last five clashes: on May 2, 2026, Excelsior won 3-2 at Groningen; on December 5, 2025, Groningen won 2-0 at Excelsior; on January 16, 2024 (KNVB Beker), Groningen won 2-0 away; on February 25, 2023, Groningen won 3-0 at home; and on January 8, 2023, Excelsior won 1-0 at home. This means Groningen has taken three of the last five, but Excelsior’s victory in the most recent meeting gives them some psychological edge.

League Table Positions

Both teams sit in the middle of the Eredivisie table with 11 points each. SBV Excelsior Rotterdam is 7th (15 goals scored, 9 conceded), while Groningen is 8th (15 scored, 13 conceded). Excelsior’s home record is weak: in three matches at Van Donge De Roo Stadion they have won 1, drawn 0, and lost 2, with 4 goals for and 5 against. Groningen’s away form is also mixed: one win, one draw, and one loss from three trips (6 scored, 7 conceded). With both sides equally matched on points and inconsistent at home/away, this fixture is poised to be extremely tight.

Win Probability: SBV Excelsior Rotterdam or Groningen?

The probability breakdown is SBV Excelsior Rotterdam 33%, a draw 33%, and Groningen 34%. These numbers are derived from the latest bookmaker odds (removing the margin) and adjusted slightly for team form and head-to-head history. The odds implied almost identical chances, but Groningen’s long-term H2H superiority and the fact that bookmakers see them as the slight favourite tilts the scales their way. Home advantage for Excelsior is negated by their poor home record, while Groningen’s away results are not strong enough to give them a clear edge. In summary, the match is a coin flip, with Groningen holding a wafer-thin advantage.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers quote prices around 2.38 for an Excelsior win, 2.40 for the draw, and 2.30 for a Groningen away victory (latest odds). Throughout the market, the 1X2 odds have been nearly symmetrical, reflecting how evenly matched these teams are. Our final SBV Excelsior Rotterdam vs Groningen prediction, based on the stats and probabilities, is that a draw is the single most likely result. If a winner must be called, Groningen gets the nod thanks to the historical record and the odds, but the margins are so fine that any outcome is plausible.