Gualaceo SC - 22 de Julio FC prediction 3 October 2026

The 22 de Julio FC vs Gualaceo SC prediction for this Serie B match on September 4, 2026 at 20:30 sees Gualaceo SC as the favourite to win with a 40% probability, while the draw stands at 45% and a home win for 22 de Julio FC is just 15%. Despite the visitors being higher in the Ecuadorian league table, the head-to-head record and recent form point towards a tight contest.

Team Form

22 de Julio FC are in dreadful shape, losing their last five matches in Serie B. They fell 0-3 at home to CD Santo Domingo, 0-2 away to LDU Portoviejo, 0-1 at home to Deportivo Cuenca Juniors, 0-2 away to Independiente Juniors, and 1-3 at home to El Nacional. In those five games they scored just one goal and conceded eleven, failing to find the net in four of them.

Gualaceo SC show a mixed recent form with two wins, one draw, and two losses in their last five outings. They won 3-0 at home against El Nacional, thrashed Deportivo Cuenca Juniors 3-0 away, drew 0-0 at home with Atletico JBG Rojiblanco Guayaqui, lost 1-2 away to San Antonio Cotacachi, and lost 2-3 at home to Independiente Juniors. The two clean-sheet victories highlight their potential when on song.

Head-to-Head Record

22 de Julio FC are unbeaten against Gualaceo SC in their four previous meetings, with one win and three draws. The most recent clash on July 18, 2026 saw 22 de Julio FC win 1-0 away at Gualaceo SC. The other three encounters all ended level: 0-0 on April 29, 2026, 2-2 on June 4, 2025, and 1-1 on March 26, 2025. This H2H record suggests a psychological edge for the home side, even though their current form is poor.

League Table Positions

In the overall Serie B standings, 22 de Julio FC sit 11th with 15 points (4 wins, 3 draws, 15 losses) from 22 matches. They have scored only 10 goals and conceded 31. Gualaceo SC are 7th with 29 points (7 wins, 8 draws, 7 losses), having netted 19 and let in 16. The 14-point gap highlights the visitors' superiority this season. Home and away splits are not available for 22 de Julio FC in the top eight, indicating a weak home record, while Gualaceo SC rank 7th in the away standings with 11 points from 11 games (2 wins, 5 draws, 4 losses).

Win Probability: 22 de Julio FC or Gualaceo SC?

Based on bookmaker odds, team form, head-to-head data, and league positions, we calculate the chances of each outcome as follows:

• 22 de Julio FC win: 15%
• Draw: 45%
• Gualaceo SC win: 40%

The odds implied a draw probability of 42.5% and a Gualaceo SC win at 38.8%, but we have adjusted slightly upward for the visitors due to 22 de Julio FC's five-match losing streak and overall poor form. The draw remains the most probable result, but Gualaceo SC are more likely to win than the home side. 22 de Julio FC's 15% reflects their very low scoring threat and defensive fragility.

Odds & Match Prediction

The bookmakers' 1X2 odds for this fixture are: 22 de Julio FC win at 4.80, draw at 2.10, and Gualaceo SC win at 2.30. The low draw price underlines the expectation of a tight, low-scoring affair. Based on the stats, our 22 de Julio FC vs Gualaceo SC prediction leans towards a draw or a narrow away win. Gualaceo SC's recent away win by a 3-0 scoreline shows they can be clinical, but their inconsistency makes a stalemate the most likely outcome. 22 de Julio FC's chances of a home win are extremely slim given their current form.