Atletico Tubarao SC - Guarani de Palhoca SC prediction 25 July 2026

The Atletico Tubarao SC vs Guarani de Palhoca SC prediction for July 26, 2026, points to a home victory in the Campeonato Catarinense. Serie B. Atletico Tubarao SC hosts Guarani de Palhoca SC at 18:00, carrying a 52% win probability according to our analysis. The home side's strong record at their own ground and a higher league position make them the clear favorite, despite a recent dip in form.

Team Form

Atletico Tubarao SC's last five matches show a worrying trend: three consecutive defeats (0-2 vs Hercilio Luz SC, 1-2 vs CF Caravaggio SC, 2-3 vs Metropolitano SC) followed by two earlier wins (1-0 vs Nacao SC, 3-0 vs Jaragua SC). They have scored 6 and conceded 7 in this period, struggling defensively in recent outings.

Guarani de Palhoca SC's form is equally mixed: two draws (1-1 vs Blumenau SC, 1-1 vs Fluminense SC), two losses (0-1 vs Juventus Jaragua do Sul SC, 1-2 vs Hercilio Luz SC), and one win (3-2 vs CF Caravaggio SC). With 6 goals scored and 7 conceded, their attack has been slightly more consistent, but away from home they have managed just one win in four attempts this season.

Head-to-Head Record

These sides have met four times in recent history. Atletico Tubarao SC leads with 2 wins, Guarani de Palhoca SC has 1 win, and there has been 1 draw. The most recent encounter on June 7, 2026, ended in a 2-2 draw at Guarani's ground. The head-to-head record suggests a tight contest, but Atletico's home advantage has historically been decisive—they won 1-0 when hosting in 2021.

League Table Positions

In the overall Campeonato Catarinense. Serie B standings, Atletico Tubarao SC sits 5th with 14 points from 9 matches (3 wins, 5 draws, 1 loss), while Guarani de Palhoca SC is 6th with 11 points (3 wins, 2 draws, 4 losses). The gap is small, but the home/away splits reveal a significant disparity: Atletico are unbeaten at home this season (2 wins, 2 draws in 4 games, 8 goals scored, 3 conceded), whereas Guarani have struggled on the road with just 1 win and 3 losses in 4 away matches, scoring only 3 and conceding 10.

Win Probability: Atletico Tubarao SC or Guarani de Palhoca SC?

Based on all available data—home/away form, head-to-head record, and league positions—we calculate the win probabilities as follows: Atletico Tubarao SC has a 52% chance of winning, the draw is at 28%, and Guarani de Palhoca SC has a 20% chance. The home side's unbeaten record at their own stadium and Guarani's poor away performances heavily tilt the balance. While Atletico's recent three-match losing streak is a concern, the opposition in those games were top-half sides, and they are expected to rebound against a team they have historically done well against.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers' odds for this fixture are not currently available. Our prediction, based purely on statistical analysis, is a home win for Atletico Tubarao SC. The most likely scoreline is a narrow victory, possibly with under 2.5 total goals, given both teams' moderate scoring rates and the defensive solidity Atletico have shown at home. Bettors should monitor the odds market closer to kick-off for any value on the home win or the draw.