Guingamp - Pau prediction 16 October 2026

The Ligue 2 clash between Guingamp and Pau on October 16, 2026 at 19:00 CET promises to be a tightly contested affair. Our Guingamp vs Pau prediction points to the home side as narrow favorites, with a 42% chance of winning, while Pau holds a 24% chance and the draw sits at 34%. All statistics and odds are based on the latest available data from the 2026/27 season.

Team Form

Guingamp come into this match with a mixed bag of results: their last five games read L, L, W, D, D. They suffered defeats to Nancy (0-1) and Red Star FC 93 (1-3) before bouncing back with a 2-1 victory over Annecy. Two consecutive draws followed—2-2 at Reims and 3-3 at home against Nantes. At home this season, Guingamp have recorded two wins, one draw, and one loss, scoring seven and conceding seven.

Pau have been slightly more consistent, posting W, W, L, D, D in their last five outings. They claimed back-to-back home wins against Stade Lavallois (3-2) and USL Dunkerque (2-0) before a narrow 0-1 away defeat to Montpellier. A 1-1 home draw with Sochaux and a 2-2 stalemate at Rodez Aveyron complete the picture. Overall, Pau sit 7th in the table with 11 points from eight matches.

Head-to-Head Record

The head-to-head record between these two is almost perfectly balanced: five wins for Guingamp, five for Pau, and one draw. Their last encounter on April 17, 2026, saw Pau triumph 2-1 at home. However, when they met at Guingamp’s stadium on November 8, 2025, it ended in a 2-2 draw. Guingamp’s last home win against Pau was a thumping 4-0 on August 26, 2023, while Pau have also taken points from this ground with a 1-0 victory in October 2024.

League Table Positions

In the 2026/27 Ligue 2 standings, Pau currently occupy 7th place with 11 points (3 wins, 2 draws, 3 losses; goals for 9, against 8). Guingamp are down in 11th with 8 points (2 wins, 2 draws, 4 losses; goals for 10, against 13). The home table paints a different picture: Guingamp rank 6th at home with 7 points from four matches, while Pau have taken 4 points from three away trips, conceding only 3 goals on the road.

Win Probability: Guingamp or Pau?

Based on the odds, form, head-to-head record, and home advantage, Guingamp have a 42% win probability, a draw is likely at 34%, and Pau have a 24% chance. The bookmakers' average odds (home 1.97, draw 2.43, away 3.57) imply a strong preference for a home win. Our adjusted probabilities, removing the bookmaker margin, still favour Guingamp but highlight the real threat of a draw. Guingamp’s home form and the even H2H suggest the match could go either way, but the percentages point to the hosts having the edge.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers are offering odds of around 2.05 for a Guingamp victory, 2.25 for the draw, and 3.50 for a Pau away win. These numbers reflect the home side’s statistical advantage. Our Guingamp vs Pau prediction aligns with the odds: Guingamp are the more likely winners, but the draw holds significant probability. A 1-1 or 2-1 scoreline appears realistic given both teams’ recent goal records. Punters considering betting tips should note that Guingamp have drawn two of their last three home matches, and Pau have drawn their last two away games.