Guria Lanchkhuti - Varketili Tbilisi prediction 16 October 2026

Guria Lanchkhuti vs Varketili Tbilisi prediction for the 3 Liga clash on October 16, 2026, at 12:00. This top-of-the-table battle sees league leaders Guria Lanchkhuti host second-placed Varketili Tbilisi. Based on our analysis, Guria Lanchkhuti has a 40% chance of winning, the draw is at 35%, and Varketili Tbilisi holds a 25% win probability.

Team Form

Guria Lanchkhuti are in flawless form with five consecutive wins. They demolished FC Margveti 2006 4-0 away on October 9, beat Dinamo Tbilisi II 2-0 at home on September 17, crushed Gardabani 5-0 away on September 10, defeated Gonio 2-0 at home on September 3, and thrashed Betlemi 5-0 away on August 27. Across these five matches, Guria scored 18 goals and conceded none.

Varketili Tbilisi’s recent form is mixed: a 3-0 home win over Dinamo Tbilisi II on October 9, a 0-1 away loss to Gonio on September 17, a 3-3 away draw at Lokomotivi Tbilisi on September 3, a 5-0 home win against Iveria Khashuri on August 27, and a 0-0 away draw at Iberia 2010 Tbilisi on August 20. They collected two wins, two draws, and one loss, scoring 11 goals and conceding 4.

Head-to-Head Record

These teams have met three times in the 3 Liga. Varketili Tbilisi remain unbeaten with one win and two draws; Guria Lanchkhuti have yet to record a victory. The most recent encounter on May 3, 2026, ended 1-1 at Varketili. Earlier, on October 31, 2024, Varketili won 2-0 at Guria, and on November 25, 2023, they drew 1-1 again at Guria’s ground. The head-to-head record clearly favours the visitors.

League Table Positions

Guria Lanchkhuti sit 1st in the overall standings with 54 points from 23 matches (17 wins, 3 draws, 3 losses, goals 67:11). Varketili Tbilisi are 2nd with 52 points (15 wins, 7 draws, 1 loss, goals 57:14). At home, Guria rank 2nd with 8 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss (34:3 goals). Varketili’s away record is also strong: 2nd in the away table with 6 wins, 4 draws, and 1 loss (17:8 goals). Both sides boast excellent defensive records, but Guria’s home attack has been particularly prolific.

Win Probability: Guria Lanchkhuti or Varketili Tbilisi?

We calculate the outcome probabilities as follows: Guria Lanchkhuti win – 40%, draw – 35%, Varketili Tbilisi win – 25%. This assessment combines current form, league positions, home advantage, and head-to-head history. Guria’s perfect five-match winning streak and dominant home performances (only one loss all season at home) make them the slight favourites. However, Varketili’s unbeaten head-to-head record and their own strong away form (only one away loss) significantly raise the chances of a draw. The visitors have proven they can frustrate Guria, so the most likely single outcome is a home win, but a stalemate is a very real possibility.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers’ odds are not currently available for this fixture. Based on the stats, Guria Lanchkhuti are the narrow favourites to win. Our prediction leans towards a home victory, but the head-to-head record urges caution. A double chance bet on Guria Lanchkhuti or Draw could be a safer option for betting tips. The match is expected to be tight, with both teams capable of scoring, though Guria’s recent defensive solidity might keep a clean sheet.