Gwardia Koszalin - GKS Manowo prediction 16 September 2026

This Gwardia Koszalin vs GKS Manowo prediction previews the IV Liga clash set for September 16, 2026, at 15:00. Based on our analysis, Gwardia Koszalin is the overwhelming favorite with a 69% win probability, while the draw has a 25% chance and GKS Manowo just a 6% chance.

Team Form

Gwardia Koszalin comes into this match with a mixed but positive recent run. In their last five outings, they have recorded three wins, one draw, and one loss. They drew 0-0 at home to Iskierka Szczecin on Sep 5, then previously beat KP Blekitni Stargard Szczecinski II 3-0 away on Aug 30. They also secured a 3-2 home victory against NKS Astra Ustronie Morskie on Aug 22. The only blemish was a heavy 6-1 away defeat to Pogon Szczecin II on Aug 15, but they bounced back with a 2-1 away win at Swit Szczecin II back in June. Overall, Gwardia Koszalin has scored 9 goals in these five games and conceded 9, but three of those wins came convincingly.

On the other hand, GKS Manowo is in dreadful form. Their last four matches have all ended in defeat. They lost 1-0 at home to LKS Wybrzeze Rewalskie Rewal on Sep 12, then fell 3-2 away to Ina Insko on Sep 6. Going further back, they were beaten 5-4 away by Blekitni Stargard Szczecinski on Jun 8, and lost 2-1 away to Gwardia Koszalin in the only head-to-head fixture. Manowo has conceded 11 goals in these four matches and has failed to pick up a single point, leaving them with zero momentum ahead of this trip.

Head-to-Head Record

These two teams have met only once in recent memory, and it was Gwardia Koszalin who came out on top. On March 20, 2025, Gwardia Koszalin hosted GKS Manowo and secured a 2-1 victory in the IV Liga. That result gives the home side a psychological edge going into this encounter.

Win Probability: Gwardia Koszalin or GKS Manowo?

After analyzing the odds, recent form, and head-to-head data, we have calculated the following win probabilities for this match: Gwardia Koszalin to win – 69%, a draw – 25%, GKS Manowo to win – 6%. The total equals 100%.

The percentages are derived from the average of the inverse odds offered by bookmakers (1.30–1.32 for a home win implies around 69% chance), adjusted minimally for the strong contrast in recent performances. Gwardia Koszalin's home advantage and their only loss in the last five coming against a higher-caliber opponent reinforce the high probability of a home win. GKS Manowo’s four-match losing streak and leaky defense make an away victory extremely unlikely.

In conclusion, Gwardia Koszalin is the clear favorite to take all three points.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers have Gwardia Koszalin as heavy favorites for this fixture. The best available odds for a home win are around 1.30 to 1.32, indicating a strong market confidence. The draw is offered at 3.40 to 3.70, while an away victory for GKS Manowo is priced as high as 13.00 to 19.00, reflecting their poor form.

Based on the stats, Gwardia Koszalin looks the most likely winner. Our match prediction is a home win. However, with any football match, upsets can happen, but the data strongly supports a comfortable victory for the home side.