Hajduk Split - HNK Gorica prediction 31 October 2026

The Hajduk Split vs HNK Gorica prediction for the Croatian HNL match on October 31, 2026, strongly favors the league leaders. Based on recent form, a dominant head-to-head record at home, and a significant gap in the table, Hajduk Split enters this match as the clear favorite. Our analysis gives Hajduk Split a 72% win probability in this fixture at Stadion Poljud.

Team Form

Hajduk Split is in excellent form, winning four of their last five matches. Their recent run includes a 1-0 away victory against Thun in the UEFA Conference League and a 1-0 home win over NK Varazdin in the HNL. They also secured an impressive 2-1 home win against Ajax and a 2-1 victory over Dinamo Zagreb. The only blemish was a 3-0 away loss to Rijeka.

HNK Gorica comes into the match struggling for wins. Their last five results consist of four draws and one loss. They drew 0-0 at home with Lokomotiva Zagreb and 1-1 away to Osijek in league play. A 2-1 home loss to Rudes and friendly draws against NK Bravo and NK Maribor highlight a team finding it difficult to secure three points.

Head-to-Head Record

The head-to-head record between these teams is tightly contested historically, with both Hajduk Split and HNK Gorica recording 6 wins each, alongside 1 draw. However, recent encounters favor Hajduk Split. In their last meeting on August 16, 2026, Hajduk Split won 2-1 away. At Stadion Poljud, their record is strong, with a 1-0 win in April 2026 and a 2-0 victory in August 2025. The last time HNK Gorica beat Hajduk Split was a 1-0 home win in January 2026.

League Table Positions

Hajduk Split sits at the top of the HNL table with 22 points from 10 matches, having secured 7 wins and scoring 19 goals. HNK Gorica is at the bottom, in 10th place, with just 7 points from 11 matches, 1 win, and only 7 goals scored. The 15-point gap between the teams highlights a massive difference in performance this season. At home, Hajduk Split is unbeaten, with 5 wins and 1 draw from 6 matches, while HNK Gorica's away form has been poor, contributing to their lowly league position.

Win Probability: Hajduk Split or HNK Gorica?

Considering the available data, the calculated win probabilities for this match are: Hajduk Split has a 72% chance of winning, the draw is at 18%, and HNK Gorica has a 10% chance. This calculation is heavily influenced by the teams' current form, the massive 15-point gap in the HNL standings, and Hajduk Split's perfect home record against a HNK Gorica side that has only one league win all season. The home advantage at Stadion Poljud is a decisive factor, making Hajduk Split the overwhelmingly more likely team to win.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers see Hajduk Split as the strong favorite, which aligns perfectly with our win probability analysis of 72%. Based on the stats, Hajduk Split's potent attack, solid home defense, and HNK Gorica's scoring struggles point towards a home win. The head-to-head record at this venue, with victories in the last two home H2H matches without conceding, reinforces the prediction. While odds are not specified for betting tips, the clear value lies with a Hajduk Split victory. The final match prediction is a comfortable win for Hajduk Split.