Ellidi - Hamar Hveragerdi prediction 3 September 2026

Ellidi vs Hamar Hveragerdi prediction for the 4th Division match on Sep 03, 2026. Hamar Hveragerdi enters as the favorite with a 53% win probability, while Ellidi has a 21% chance and the draw is at 26% based on odds and recent form.

Team Form

Ellidi's recent form shows 1 win, 3 draws, and 1 loss in their last five matches. They drew 2-2 against Arborg and 2-2 away at IH Hafnarfjordur, lost 2-3 at home to Hafnir, drew 3-3 away at Ulfarnir, and finally beat Alafoss 1-0 at home. The team struggles to convert draws into wins, with only one victory in five outings.

Hamar Hveragerdi, on the other hand, is in excellent shape with 4 wins and 1 draw in their last five. They hammered Alafoss 5-0 at home, beat Arborg 2-1 away, destroyed IH Hafnarfjordur 7-1 on the road, drew 2-2 at Ulfarnir, and earlier beat Ellidi 4-0 at home. That's 14 goals scored in five matches, showing a potent attack, especially away from home.

Head-to-Head Record

The two sides have met twice in the 4th Division. The most recent clash was on Jun 24, 2026, when Hamar Hveragerdi won 4-0 at home. Before that, on Jun 28, 2025, Ellidi won 3-2 at home. Both winners were the home side, indicating a strong home advantage. However, Hamar's 4-0 demolition of Ellidi is fresh and underlines the gap in current form.

Win Probability: Ellidi or Hamar Hveragerdi?

Based on the average of multiple bookmaker odds (home win 3.90–4.90, draw 3.40–3.60, away win 1.65–1.80), the implied probabilities after removing the margin are: Ellidi win 21%, draw 26%, Hamar Hveragerdi win 53%. The away team's superior recent form – 4 wins in 5 with a +12 goal difference – combined with the lopsided head-to-head result in June makes Hamar the clear favorite. Ellidi's home advantage and the fact they won the previous home H2H keeps the draw probability relatively high. Overall, Hamar Hveragerdi has a 53% chance of winning, the draw is at 26%, and Ellidi has a 21% chance.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers see Hamar Hveragerdi as the favorite, offering odds as low as 1.65 for an away win. The draw is priced around 3.40–3.60, and an Ellidi home win can be found at odds up to 4.90. Based on the stats, Hamar Hveragerdi to win is the most likely outcome. However, Ellidi's recent string of draws (3 in the last 5) suggests the draw is a real possibility, and at odds around 3.60 it could offer value for bettors looking for a safer option.