Ironi Modiin - Hapoel Afula prediction 9 October 2026

The Ironi Modiin vs Hapoel Afula prediction for the Liga Leumit clash on Oct 9 sees Hapoel Afula as a 42% favorite to win away from home. This Israel Liga Leumit match kicks off at 14:00, with the visitors holding a clear advantage in league position and recent away form. Bookmakers are offering relatively balanced odds, but statistical analysis points to Hapoel Afula having the best chance to take the points.

Team Form

Ironi Modiin’s last five matches returned just one win along with three defeats and a draw. That sequence reads W, L, L, L, D. A 2-1 away victory at Maccabi Ahi Nazareth on Oct 1 was the lone bright spot; since then they lost 1-3 at home to SC Ashdod, 2-3 at MSK Kiryat Yam, and 2-4 at home to Bnei Yehuda Tel Aviv, before a goalless away draw against MS Kafr Qasim. That home record stands out – in their last two matches at home they conceded seven goals and took no points.

Hapoel Afula’s form over the same period reads D, W, D, L, L. They drew 2-2 at home with Hapoel Ironi Rishon LeZion on Oct 1, won 3-0 away at Hapoel Acre FC on Sep 24, drew 3-3 at home against Hapoel Kfar Shalem on Sep 17, then lost 2-4 away to Maccabi Bnei Raina and 0-1 at home to Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa. Those two away results – a clean-sheet win and a heavy defeat – show they can be effective on the road but remain inconsistent.

Head-to-Head Record

These sides have met three times in recent league play, with Ironi Modiin winning once, two draws, and Hapoel Afula yet to win. The only home victory for Ironi Modiin was a 3-1 success on Nov 10, 2025. The two most recent encounters, both in April 2026, finished 0-0 and 0-0 – first at Hapoel Afula on Apr 6 and then again at Hapoel Afula on Apr 24. This head-to-head pattern suggests tight contests, although the fixture history is short.

League Table Positions

In the overall Liga Leumit standings, Ironi Modiin sit 11th with 8 points from 8 matches (2 wins, 2 draws, 4 losses, goals 12:15). Hapoel Afula are 6th with 14 points from the same number of games (4 wins, 2 draws, 2 losses, goals 16:12). The six-point gap reflects Afula’s stronger campaign so far.

Home and away splits reveal more: Ironi Modiin have managed only 1 point from 4 home games (based on the difference between their overall points and away points), scoring 4 and conceding 11 in those fixtures. Hapoel Afula’s away record stands at 2 wins, 0 draws, 1 loss from 3 trips, earning 6 points with 6 goals scored and 4 conceded. This stark contrast in venue-based performance heavily tilts the scale toward the visitors.

Win Probability: Ironi Modiin or Hapoel Afula?

Our calculated win probabilities are: Ironi Modiin 25%, draw 33%, Hapoel Afula 42%. These figures start from the market-implied odds – after removing the bookmaker margin, the normalized probabilities from the average odds (home 2.69, draw 2.50, away 2.59) were roughly 32% home, 35% draw, 33% away. We then adjusted downward for Ironi Modiin’s extremely poor home record (1 point from 4 games) and upward for Hapoel Afula’s solid away points return and higher league position. The draw retains a strong chance because of the two recent 0-0 head-to-head results. Based on these numbers, Hapoel Afula is the side more likely to win, but the match is far from one-sided.

Odds & Match Prediction

Looking at the odds from multiple bookmakers, you’ll find home win quotes in a tight band from 2.60 to 2.80 (average 2.69), the draw oscillating between 2.15 and 3.40 (average 2.50), and away win odds ranging from 2.19 to 2.88 (average 2.59). This pricing reflects a closely matched contest with no clear favourite. Our statistical prediction, however, leans towards an away win for Hapoel Afula – the 42% probability makes them the most likely match outcome. A bet on the draw at the average 2.50 odds also offers value given the 33% probability. For betting tips, the stats suggest Hapoel Afula to win offers the strongest edge, but the draw must be respected. As always, use these insights alongside the latest team news.