Hapoel Tirat HaCarmel - Hapoel Beit Shean Mesilot prediction 12 October 2026

Our Hapoel Tirat HaCarmel vs Hapoel Beit Shean Mesilot prediction for this League Alef match on Oct 12 at 19:15 is that the draw is the most likely outcome. Based on the latest odds and team form, Hapoel Tirat HaCarmel has a 36% chance of winning, the draw is at 38%, and Hapoel Beit Shean Mesilot has a 26% chance.

Team Form

Hapoel Tirat HaCarmel's recent form has been inconsistent. In their last five matches, they have recorded one win, one draw, and three losses (L, D, L, W, L). Their most recent outing was a 1-0 away defeat to Hapoel Ironi Karmiel on Oct 8. Before that, they played a 0-0 home draw against Tzeirey Um El Fahem. Their only win in this period was a 4-1 away victory against Tzeirey Tamra.

Hapoel Beit Shean Mesilot's form is slightly better, with two wins, one draw, and two losses in their last five (W, L, L, D, W). They secured a 2-1 home win against Hapoel Ironi Baqa Al Gharbiyye on Sep 30. However, they suffered back-to-back 1-0 defeats away to Tzeirey Tamra and at home to MS Tira in the Cup before that. Their most recent away league win was a 1-0 victory at this very opponent, Hapoel Tirat HaCarmel, back in February.

Head-to-Head Record

The head-to-head record between these two teams is perfectly balanced after two meetings. Each side has one win, with no draws. The most recent clash was on Feb 19, 2026, where Hapoel Beit Shean Mesilot won 1-0 away at Hapoel Tirat HaCarmel. The earlier fixture on Oct 17, 2025, saw Hapoel Tirat HaCarmel win 3-0 away from home. This shows both teams are capable of winning on the opponent's ground.

League Table Positions

Both teams compete in Israel's League Alef. While exact current table positions and points are not provided in the available data, the head-to-head results and recent form suggest these are two closely matched sides in the division. The even H2H record and similar form patterns indicate there is little to separate them in the standings.

Win Probability: Hapoel Tirat HaCarmel or Hapoel Beit Shean Mesilot?

Hapoel Tirat HaCarmel has a 36% chance of winning, the draw is at 38%, and Hapoel Beit Shean Mesilot has a 26% chance. This calculation is based on the available odds, which we normalized to remove the bookmaker margin. The average implied probabilities from the four bookmakers gave a slight edge to the draw. We then adjusted for Hapoel Tirat HaCarmel's home advantage and Hapoel Beit Shean Mesilot's slightly better recent form, including their win in the last head-to-head meeting. The draw probability is high because bookmakers see this as a very even contest, with the lowest odds offered on the draw by several bookies.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers are offering a range of odds for this match. The best available home win odds for Hapoel Tirat HaCarmel are 2.85, the draw is priced as low as 2.10, and an away win for Hapoel Beit Shean Mesilot can be found at 3.00. The tight pricing, especially the short odds on the draw, confirms that this is expected to be a close game. Based on the stats, the most likely match outcome is a draw. A 1-1 scoreline would be a reasonable prediction given the balanced nature of the fixture and the high probability percentage for the stalemate.