Hapoel Afula - Hapoel Ironi Rishon LeZion prediction 1 October 2026

The Hapoel Afula vs Hapoel Ironi Rishon LeZion prediction for this Liga Leumit clash on October 1, 2026, at 17:00 leans towards the visitors. Based on our win probability analysis, Hapoel Ironi Rishon LeZion has a 45% chance of winning, while Hapoel Afula sits at 30%, and the draw is at 25%.

Team Form

Hapoel Afula's recent form has been inconsistent, with results reading W, D, L, L, W in their last five matches. They secured a strong 3-0 away win against Hapoel Acre FC on Sep 24 but were held to a 3-3 draw at home by Hapoel Kfar Shalem on Sep 17. Defeats to Maccabi Bnei Raina (4-2) and Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa (0-1) highlight some defensive vulnerabilities.

Hapoel Ironi Rishon LeZion comes into this fixture in better shape, with a form string of W, L, W, D, W. They are coming off a 1-0 home victory against Maccabi Ahi Nazareth on Sep 24. Their only recent loss was a narrow 3-2 defeat away at SC Ashdod, a top side in the league. With three wins in their last five, the away side carries momentum.

Head-to-Head Record

In the head-to-head record between these two sides, Hapoel Afula has 13 wins, Hapoel Ironi Rishon LeZion has 8 wins, and there have been 5 draws. The most recent meeting on Jan 2, 2026, ended in a 1-1 draw. However, Hapoel Ironi Rishon LeZion won the two previous encounters, including a 3-0 away victory on Sep 1, 2025, and a 1-0 away win on Feb 4, 2025.

League Table Positions

Hapoel Ironi Rishon LeZion sits 3rd in the Liga Leumit table with 16 points from 7 matches, having recorded 5 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss. Hapoel Afula is in 5th place with 13 points from 7 games (4 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses). The visitors have a perfect home record this season, but this match is at Hapoel Afula's ground, where the hosts have collected 7 points from 4 home games.

Win Probability: Hapoel Afula or Hapoel Ironi Rishon LeZion?

Hapoel Ironi Rishon LeZion has a 45% chance of winning, the draw is at 25%, and Hapoel Afula has a 30% chance. These probabilities are calculated using the inverse of the best available odds (away win at 2.10, draw at 2.25, home win at 2.80), normalized to remove the bookmaker margin, and then adjusted for the away team's superior league position and recent H2H dominance. Hapoel Ironi Rishon LeZion's higher table rank and recent 3-0 and 1-0 wins in this fixture tilt the probability in their favor.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers see this as a competitive match. The best odds available are 2.80 for a Hapoel Afula win, 2.25 for the draw, and 2.10 for a Hapoel Ironi Rishon LeZion victory. Based on the stats and the win probability, Hapoel Ironi Rishon LeZion is the more likely winner. The value might be on the away side, given their strong recent record in this head-to-head matchup.