MSK Kiryat Yam - Hapoel Kfar Saba prediction 1 October 2026

MSK Kiryat Yam vs Hapoel Kfar Saba prediction for the Liga Leumit match on October 1, 2026, at 17:00 local time. MSK Kiryat Yam is the clear favorite according to the odds and recent form, with a calculated win probability of 55%, while Hapoel Kfar Saba has only a 20% chance of victory and the draw sits at 25%.

Team Form

MSK Kiryat Yam come into this fixture with mixed but mostly positive results. In their last five Liga Leumit matches, they recorded three wins and two losses: a 3-1 away win at Maccabi Herzliya, a 3-2 home win against Ironi Modiin, a 2-4 away loss at Hapoel Ironi Rishon LeZion, a 5-0 home thrashing of Hapoel Acre FC, and a 2-3 away loss at Hapoel Kfar Shalem. Their home form is particularly strong, with two consecutive home wins and a total of 8 goals scored across those two games.

Hapoel Kfar Saba’s recent run has been less convincing. Their last five matches produced two wins and three defeats: a 1-2 home loss to Bnei Yehuda Tel Aviv, a 2-4 away loss at MS Kafr Qasim, a 2-0 home win over Maccabi Ironi Kiryat Gat, a heavy 1-6 away loss at Hapoel Raanana, and a 2-0 away win at Maccabi Herzliya. On the road, they have conceded 14 goals in their last four away games, highlighting defensive vulnerabilities.

Head-to-Head Record

The head-to-head record overwhelmingly favors MSK Kiryat Yam. The teams have met three times previously, and MSK Kiryat Yam have won all three meetings (home wins 2-0 and 2-1, and an away win 2-0). Hapoel Kfar Saba are yet to take a single point off their hosts, failing to score in two of those encounters. This H2H dominance is a strong indicator going into this prediction.

League Table Positions

MSK Kiryat Yam sit 6th in the Liga Leumit table with 12 points from 7 matches (4 wins, 3 losses), having scored 21 goals and conceded 13. They are just outside the promotion playoff places. Hapoel Kfar Saba are not listed in the top 12 of the live standings data, suggesting they are in the lower half of the division. The home side’s superior league position further supports their status as the likely winner.

Win Probability: MSK Kiryat Yam or Hapoel Kfar Saba?

Based on available odds, form, head-to-head trends, and league table data, we calculate the outcome probabilities as follows:

• MSK Kiryat Yam win: 55%
• Draw: 25%
• Hapoel Kfar Saba win: 20%

The odds implied a baseline home win probability of around 51.5%, with a draw near 28% and an away win at 20.5%. Adjusting upward for Kiryat Yam’s perfect H2H record (3 wins from 3), their strong home form, and the visitors’ poor away defensive record moves the home win probability to 55%. The draw probability is slightly reduced because MSK Kiryat Yam tend to be decisive in this fixture, and Hapoel Kfar Saba’s away win chance remains a 20% long shot. Therefore, MSK Kiryat Yam is the team most likely to win this contest.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers have set the following odds (1X2 range):

• Home (MSK Kiryat Yam): 1.50 – 1.73
• Draw: 2.42 – 4.10
• Away (Hapoel Kfar Saba): 3.70 – 4.35

These odds confirm that the betting market sees MSK Kiryat Yam as the clear favorite, with average home odds around 1.62. The draw and away win are priced as much less likely outcomes. Our MSK Kiryat Yam vs Hapoel Kfar Saba prediction is a home victory, with the form, H2H, and league positions all pointing toward the hosts extending their winning record in this matchup.