Hapoel Marmorek - Shimshon Tel Aviv prediction 23 September 2026

This Hapoel Marmorek vs Shimshon Tel Aviv prediction covers the League Alef match on Sep 23 at 17:00. Based on the available odds, recent form and head-to-head record, Shimshon Tel Aviv are the favorites with a 60% win probability, Hapoel Marmorek have a 12% chance, and the draw is 28%.

Team Form

Hapoel Marmorek come into this match with a recent form line of L, L, W, D, D. Their last five results include a 0-1 home loss to Hapoel Nir Ramat Hasharon on Sep 18, a 0-1 away loss at FC Holon Yermiyahu on Sep 9, a 1-0 home win over Hapoel Hadera on Sep 4, a 1-1 home draw with Maccabi Ashdod on Feb 27 and a 1-1 away draw at Hapoel Herzliya on Feb 20.

Shimshon Tel Aviv have been stronger, with W, D, W, W, D. They beat FC Holon Yermiyahu 3-1 at home on Sep 17, drew 2-2 at Hapoel Hadera on Sep 9, won 2-0 at home against Irony Bet Shemesh on Sep 3, won 4-2 at home against Hapoel Nir Ramat Hasharon on Feb 26, and played a 0-0 home draw with MK Kfar Saba 1928 on Feb 19.

• Hapoel Marmorek last 5: L L W D D
• Shimshon Tel Aviv last 5: W D W W D

Head-to-Head Record

Overall, Hapoel Marmorek have 2 wins, Shimshon Tel Aviv have 3 wins, and there have been 3 draws. The listed recent head-to-head matches are:

• Dec 11, 2025: Shimshon Tel Aviv 3-2 Hapoel Marmorek
• Jan 30, 2025: Shimshon Tel Aviv 1-1 Hapoel Marmorek
• Feb 10, 2024: Shimshon Tel Aviv 0-0 Hapoel Marmorek
• Jan 26, 2023: Shimshon Tel Aviv 1-0 Hapoel Marmorek
• Sep 23, 2022: Hapoel Marmorek 1-0 Shimshon Tel Aviv

The most recent meeting ended 3-2 to Shimshon Tel Aviv on Dec 11, 2025. Four of these five listed H2H games produced two or fewer goals, so the matchup has generally been tight.

Win Probability: Hapoel Marmorek or Shimshon Tel Aviv?

The win probability for this match is Hapoel Marmorek 12%, draw 28%, and Shimshon Tel Aviv 60%. The calculation starts with the inverse of the two 1X2 odds lines, normalized to remove the bookmaker margin, and then adjusts for recent form, head-to-head results and home/away factor.

Shimshon Tel Aviv hold the clear edge in the model. They have W D W W D form, a 3-2 lead in overall H2H wins, and their away odds range from 1.34 to 1.91. Hapoel Marmorek have home advantage but only L L W D D in their last five, and their home odds are 7.80 to 8.00. The draw odds are split between 2.20 and 3.95, producing a 28% draw probability after normalization.

Conclusion: Shimshon Tel Aviv are the more likely winner. The draw is the next most probable outcome, and a Hapoel Marmorek win is the least likely result.

Hapoel Marmorek vs Shimshon Tel Aviv Prediction: Odds & Betting Tips

The supplied 1X2 odds include two lines. One line lists Hapoel Marmorek at 8.00, draw at 2.20 and Shimshon Tel Aviv at 1.91. The other line lists Hapoel Marmorek at 7.80, draw at 3.95 and Shimshon Tel Aviv at 1.34.

On total goals, Hapoel Marmorek’s last five matches each finished with two or fewer goals. Shimshon Tel Aviv’s recent matches produced 4, 4, 2, 6 and 0 total goals, showing a wider range.

Final match prediction: Shimshon Tel Aviv to win. Bookmakers see Shimshon Tel Aviv as the favorite, and the form and head-to-head data back that view. Betting tips based on the stats could include an away win or a double chance on Shimshon Tel Aviv or draw, but the draw at 28% means backing Shimshon Tel Aviv with draw no bet is a possible alternative. This is not a guaranteed outcome; it is a prediction based only on the supplied stats.