Hapoel Jerusalem - Hapoel Tel Aviv prediction 24 October 2026

Welcome to our Hapoel Tel Aviv vs Hapoel Jerusalem prediction for the Israeli Premier League match on October 24, 2026, kicking off at 16:45. Based on the latest odds, team form, and head-to-head statistics, Hapoel Tel Aviv enters this match as the favorite with a 45% chance of winning, while Hapoel Jerusalem has a 20% chance of causing an upset, and a draw stands at 35%.

Team Form

Hapoel Jerusalem

The home side have recorded two wins, one draw, and two losses in their last five matches (L,L,W,D,W). They suffered a 2-1 defeat at Hapoel Be'er Sheva, then fell 4-1 at home to Maccabi Haifa, before bouncing back with a 4-2 away victory over Maccabi Petah Tikva, a 2-2 draw at Ironi Tiberias, and a 4-2 home win against Hapoel Ironi Kiryat Shmona. This run highlights their attacking potential (10 goals scored) but also a leaky defense (10 conceded).

Hapoel Tel Aviv

The away side’s last five results are W,W,L,W,L. They secured consecutive wins over Ironi Tiberias (1-0 home) and Hapoel Ironi Kiryat Shmona (3-1 away), lost a friendly 4-3 to Hapoel Haifa, dominated Hapoel Petach Tikva 3-0 at home, and then suffered a heavy 4-1 loss at Maccabi Tel Aviv. Excluding the friendly, they have collected three wins in four league games, scoring 7 and conceding 5, showing strong forward play.

Head-to-Head Record

In the last seven meetings across all competitions, the head-to-head record reads: Hapoel Jerusalem home wins 2, Hapoel Tel Aviv away wins 1, and 4 draws. The most recent clash (February 13, 2026) ended Hapoel Tel Aviv 3-1 Hapoel Jerusalem. At this venue, the last two league encounters were a 0-0 draw in November 2025 and a 2-0 Jerusalem win in April 2024. The high frequency of draws (57%) underlines how evenly matched these sides have been.

League Table Positions

Hapoel Tel Aviv sit 3rd in the Premier League with 16 points from 7 matches (5 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss, goals 15:5). Hapoel Jerusalem are 9th with 7 points (2 wins, 1 draw, 4 losses, goals 14:18). Tel Aviv’s goal difference of +10 dwarfs Jerusalem’s -4, and their away record (1 win, 1 draw, 1 loss, 4:5 goals) is modest but significantly stronger than Jerusalem’s overall form.

Win Probability: Hapoel Tel Aviv or Hapoel Jerusalem?

Stripping out the bookmaker margin from the latest 1X2 odds (home 6.10, draw 2.38, away 1.78) gives a baseline of: Hapoel Jerusalem 14.3%, draw 36.7%, Hapoel Tel Aviv 49.0%. Adjusting for Jerusalem’s home advantage, the historical draw tendency, and Tel Aviv’s slightly shaky away form, we arrive at final win probabilities: Hapoel Jerusalem 20%, draw 35%, Hapoel Tel Aviv 45%. Tel Aviv are the more likely winners, but the data supports a high chance of a stalemate.

Odds & Match Prediction

As of now, one bookmaker lists the odds as: home win 6.10, draw 2.38, away win 1.78. The market sees Hapoel Tel Aviv as the clear favorite. Taking into account the teams’ form, head-to-head pattern, and table positions, our Hapoel Tel Aviv vs Hapoel Jerusalem prediction is an away win, though a draw is a realistic outcome given the history of tight contests.