FC Tallinn - Harju JK Laagri prediction 3 October 2026

FC Tallinn vs Harju JK Laagri prediction for the Estonian Cup match on Oct 3, 2026, at 13:30. Based on the latest odds, form, and head-to-head record, Harju JK Laagri are the clear favourite with a win probability of 62%, while FC Tallinn hold just a 16% chance of causing an upset.

Team Form

FC Tallinn's recent form shows three wins and two draws from their last five outings (W, D, L, W, W). In that run they beat Harju JK Laagri 2 (5-0) in the Cup, drew 1-1 at Elva, lost 1-5 at home to Levadia Tallinn II, recovered with a 4-2 home win over FC Maardu, and won 2-1 away at Viimsi MRJK.

Harju JK Laagri come into this match with mixed results (D, W, L, L, W). Their last five: a 0-0 home draw with Kuressaare, a 2-1 away win at Paide Linnameeskond, a 3-2 loss at Parnu JK Vaprus, a 0-2 home defeat to Tammeka Tartu, and a 2-1 away win at Nomme United. While not dominant, they have beaten fellow Meistriliiga sides on the road.

Head-to-Head Record

All four previous meetings were played at FC Tallinn's ground. The head-to-head record is perfectly balanced: FC Tallinn 1 win, 2 draws, Harju JK Laagri 1 win.

• Oct 27, 2024 (Esiliiga): FC Tallinn 0-2 Harju JK Laagri
• Mar 9, 2024 (Esiliiga): FC Tallinn 1-1 Harju JK Laagri
• Oct 23, 2021 (Esiliiga B): FC Tallinn 1-1 Harju JK Laagri
• Aug 20, 2021 (Esiliiga B): FC Tallinn 2-1 Harju JK Laagri

Win Probability: FC Tallinn or Harju JK Laagri?

Using the betting odds as a base, adjusting for home advantage and recent performances, we calculate the match outcome probabilities as follows:

• FC Tallinn win: 16%
• Draw: 22%
• Harju JK Laagri win: 62%

Harju JK Laagri’s superior league status (Meistriliiga vs Esiliiga) and the odds heavily tilt the probabilities in their favour. However, the head-to-head history and FC Tallinn’s home advantage keep the draw and a slim home win within the realm of possibility.

Odds & Match Prediction

The best available 1X2 odds show a clear favourite. One bookmaker prices an away win at 1.70, another at a very short 1.30. FC Tallinn are available at 5.75 across the board, while the draw is quoted between 2.85 and 5.75.

Based on the stats, Harju JK Laagri are expected to win. Their Meistriliiga experience and the bookmakers’ confidence make them the likely victors. Nevertheless, FC Tallinn’s recent home wins and the evenly-matched H2H record (only three goals scored in the last three meetings) suggest a low-scoring affair. Our prediction: Harju JK Laagri to win, possibly with under 2.5 total goals.