Haugesund - Stabaek prediction 3 October 2026

The Haugesund vs Stabaek prediction for October 3, 2026, in Norway's 1 Division points firmly to a home win. Based on current form, league positions, and deep statistical analysis, Haugesund enters this match with a clear advantage and a calculated win probability of 55%, while Stabaek trails at 20% and the draw at 25%.

Team Form

Haugesund is in scintillating form with five straight wins. Their recent outings at home and away have been dominant: a 4-2 victory over Strommen (Sep 20), a 4-1 away success at Moss (Sep 13), and a 4-0 cup win at Djerv 1919 (Sep 8). Other wins against Sogndal (2-0) and Bryne (2-0) underline their ability to control matches and score freely. In contrast, Stabaek's recent results tell a different story. They managed a 2-1 home win over Sogndal on Sep 20 but that remains their only victory in the last five outings. A 1-1 cup draw at Pors Grenland (Sep 16) was followed by three defeats: 0-2 at Bryne, 2-3 home loss to Moss, and a 1-2 loss at Hodd. Stabaek's dip in form, especially on the road, raises serious questions ahead of this fixture.

Head-to-Head Record

The overall head-to-head between these sides is dead even at 9 wins each and 5 draws. However, the recent meetings strongly favor Stabaek. In the last five clashes, Stabaek won four times, including a 3-2 home victory in April 2026 and a 2-1 cup win in May 2025. Haugesund’s only recent success came at home in December 2023 (3-0). This historical edge for Stabaek adds a note of caution, but current trajectory often outweighs older patterns.

League Table Positions

Haugesund sits atop the 1 Division standings with 52 points from 23 matches (17 wins, 1 draw, 5 losses) and a +33 goal difference. They are the most prolific scorers in the league with 72 goals. At home, they are almost unplayable: 9 wins, 1 draw, and only 1 loss, scoring 35 and conceding just 13. Stabaek occupies 4th place with 45 points (14 wins, 3 draws, 6 defeats) and a solid +28 goal difference. However, their away form is notably weaker — 5 wins, 3 draws, and 4 losses in 12 road games, with 24 goals scored and 15 conceded. The gap in home/away strength tilts this match-up substantially.

Win Probability: Haugesund or Stabaek?

Using the available odds from multiple bookmakers, the baseline market implied probabilities (after removing the bookmaker margin) are approximately 45% for Haugesund, 29% for the draw, and 26% for Stabaek. We then adjust these figures based on reality: Haugesund’s five-match winning streak, their imperious home record, and their position as league leaders versus Stabaek’s three losses in four and mediocre away results. The head-to-head reversal suggests Stabaek can compete, but the current statistical profile is overwhelmingly in Haugesund’s favor. Consequently, we assign Haugesund a 55% win probability, the draw at 25%, and Stabaek at 20%. This is a significant divergence from the raw odds and reflects the expected real outcome more accurately.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers list Haugesund as the clear favorite with home win odds clustering around 1.85–1.90. The draw is generally priced near 2.75, while a Stabaek away win sees odds around 3.20–3.30. These figures acknowledge Haugesund’s superior form and league standing. Based on the statistics, the most likely outcome is a Haugesund victory. Their relentless attack (averaging over 3 goals per home game) faces a Stabaek defense that has kept only two clean sheets in their last eight competitive matches. Expect goals, and expect the home side to eventually impose their rhythm. The key betting tip: Haugesund to win offers value when matched against their 55% calculated win chance.