Fard Alborz FC - Havadar SC prediction 26 October 2026

The Fard Alborz FC vs Havadar SC prediction for the Azadegan League match on Oct 26, 2026, at 11:30 points to a tight contest where the draw has the highest probability. After analyzing the latest form, head-to-head history, and league standings, a stalemate has a 45% chance, while Havadar SC holds a 29% chance of an away win and Fard Alborz FC has a 26% probability. This matchup offers intriguing betting angles given the contrasting home and away records.

Team Form

Fard Alborz FC come into this game with a mixed set of recent results, showing L, W, L, W, D over their last five outings. Their last match was a 4-2 defeat away to Naft Gachsaran on Oct 19. Before that, they beat Shahin Bandar Ameri 3-0 at home, lost 1-0 to Naft Masjed Soleyman away, won 1-0 against Niroye Zamini, and drew 1-1 with Mes Kerman at home. The two wins and a draw in that stretch show they can compete, but defensive lapses have cost them.

Havadar SC's last five matches have followed a D, L, L, D, W pattern. They earned a 1-1 draw away at Palayesh Naft Bandar Abbas on Oct 12, then fell 2-0 at Ario, lost 3-0 at home to Besat Kermanshah, drew 0-0 at Mes Rafsanjan, and beat Nassaji Mazandaran 2-0 away from home. The solitary win and two draws suggest limited form, but the clean sheet against Mes Rafsanjan provides some defensive confidence.

Head-to-Head Record

The history between these teams heavily favors Havadar SC. The two previous meetings both ended in away wins for Havadar SC: a 1-0 victory at Fard Alborz FC on Sep 30, 2025, and a 1-0 home win for Havadar SC on Feb 22, 2026. The head-to-head numbers show 0 home wins, 0 draws, and 2 away wins. Havadar SC has yet to concede a goal to Fard Alborz FC in these encounters, a statistic that will weigh heavily on the home side's confidence.

League Table Positions

Fard Alborz FC sit 7th in the overall Azadegan League standings with 8 points from 6 matches (2W, 2D, 2L). They have scored 7 goals and conceded 6. At home, they are unbeaten: ranking 6th in the home table with 5 points from 3 games (1W, 2D, 0L), scoring 4 and allowing just 1. Havadar SC, meanwhile, are outside the top 12 and do not appear in the provided standings, indicating a lower league position. Their away form is not ranked in the top 8 away teams, though Fard Alborz FC are 8th in the away table with 3 points from 3 away fixtures (1W, 0D, 2L). This suggests that while Fard Alborz are hard to beat at home, Havadar SC have historically found a way to win this fixture regardless of venue.

Win Probability: Fard Alborz FC or Havadar SC?

Based on all available data, the outcome probabilities are distributed as follows: Fard Alborz FC win – 26%, draw – 45%, Havadar SC win – 29%. These figures start from normalized bookmaker odds (home 3.00, draw 1.85, away 4.00), which imply a 29.7% home chance, 48.1% draw, and 22.2% away chance once the margin is removed. Adjustments were then made to reflect the lopsided head-to-head record (Havadar two wins from two) and Fard Alborz's unbeaten home form this season. The increase in away win probability and decrease in home win probability acknowledges that Havadar have already won away once in this matchup, but the high likelihood of a draw remains the dominant forecast.

Considering the home side's solid defensive record at their own ground and the visitors' ability to grind out results, the match is most likely to end level. However, if a winner emerges, Havadar SC hold a slight edge due to their psychological advantage and superior H2H record.

Odds & Match Prediction

Current bookmaker odds offer a home win at around 3.00–2.88, the draw at 1.85–1.91, and an away win at 4.00–4.20. The tight draw price underlines how close the markets expect this game to be. Bookmakers see the draw as the most probable outcome, which aligns with our probability model. For betting tips, the draw is statistically the best pick, while a cautious small stake on Havadar SC to win could offer value given their 100% H2H record and odds above 4.00. Based on the stats, expect a low-scoring affair: the last two meetings both ended 1-0, and Fard Alborz have kept things tight at home. Our final match prediction is a 1-1 draw, though a 0-1 away win cannot be ruled out.