Wingate & Finchley - Hemel Hempstead Town prediction 22 September 2026

The Wingate & Finchley vs Hemel Hempstead Town prediction for this FA Cup clash on September 22, 2026, at 19:45 points to a deadlock. Our analysis gives a draw a 40% probability, while both sides have an equal 30% chance of winning, making this a very tight contest.

Team Form

Wingate & Finchley come into this match with mixed results in their last five outings: a draw, two wins, and two losses (D, W, L, L, W). They drew 1-1 away at Hemel Hempstead Town in the FA Cup on Sep 19, beat Aveley 4-3, lost 1-4 to Welling United, lost 1-4 at home to Enfield Town, and won 3-2 at Chatham Town. Their attack has been lively but the defence has conceded eight goals in those five games.

Hemel Hempstead Town are struggling to turn draws into wins. Their last five matches have produced four draws and one defeat (D, D, D, D, L). After the 1-1 draw with Wingate & Finchley, they drew 1-1 with Tonbridge Angels, 0-0 at Ebbsfleet United, 1-1 at home to Farnham Town, and lost 0-2 at Folkestone Invicta. The lack of cutting edge is a concern, but they are difficult to beat.

Head-to-Head Record

The head-to-head record heavily favours the away side. In five previous meetings, the home team has never won (0 home wins), with three draws and two away victories. The most recent clash was a 1-1 draw just three days ago. Hemel Hempstead Town won 4-2 at home in the 2019 FA Trophy, while the other two encounters in 2017 both ended 1-1. This trend suggests Hemel Hempstead Town have historically performed well on the road against Wingate & Finchley.

Win Probability: Wingate & Finchley or Hemel Hempstead Town?

Based on the available data – recent form, head-to-head record, and home advantage – we calculate the outcome probabilities as follows:

• Wingate & Finchley win: 30%
• Draw: 40%
• Hemel Hempstead Town win: 30%

The draw is the most likely result. Wingate & Finchley’s home advantage is offset by their poor defensive record and the historical H2H trend that shows no home wins. Hemel Hempstead Town’s solid but unspectacular form (four draws in five) also points to a stalemate. The away side’s historical edge gives them an equal chance of snatching a win, but their inability to score freely makes a draw the safest prediction.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers’ odds are not currently available for this fixture. However, based on the stats, the match is expected to be a low-scoring, tight affair. The most probable outcome is a draw, with a 1-1 scoreline a strong possibility given both teams’ recent results. Hemel Hempstead Town’s historical away form in this fixture cannot be ignored, but Wingate & Finchley’s home crowd could inspire a breakthrough. Our final prediction: a draw is the value pick, but a narrow away win would not be a surprise.