Shenzhen Peng City - Henan Jianye Songshan Longmen prediction 9 October 2026

The Shenzhen Peng City vs Henan Jianye Songshan Longmen prediction for this China. Super League clash on Oct 9, 2026, points to an away-side advantage. Based on head-to-head dominance, league positions, and recent form, Henan Jianye Songshan Longmen enters the match with a 40% win probability, while Shenzhen Peng City holds just a 25% chance and the draw sits at 35%.

Team Form

Shenzhen Peng City’s last five outings show inconsistency: a 1-1 draw at Shandong Luneng Taishan, a 0-1 home loss to Shanghai SIPG East Asia, a 1-1 home draw with Zhejiang Lucheng Hangzhou Greentown, a 2-1 away win at Liaoning Shenyang Urban Tieren, and a heavy 0-4 defeat at Beijing Guoan. That’s one win, two draws, and two losses—hardly the form of a side ready to dominate.

Henan Jianye Songshan Longmen, meanwhile, has become the league’s draw specialists. Their last five results: 1-1 at Wuhan Three Towns, 0-0 home to Chengdu Rongcheng, 1-1 home to Chongqing Tonglianglong, a wild 4-4 draw at Liaoning Shenyang Urban Tieren, and a 1-4 loss at Shanghai Shenhua. Four consecutive draws before that loss highlight a team that is difficult to beat but struggles to close out wins.

Head-to-Head Record

The H2H record heavily favors the visitors. In five previous meetings, Henan Jianye Songshan Longmen has won three, with two draws, and Shenzhen Peng City is yet to record a victory. The most recent encounter on May 15, 2026, ended 1-0 to Henan. Before that, Henan won 4-1 in August 2025 and 3-1 at this very venue in April 2025. The only two draws came in the 2021 China. FA Cup, both 1-1 and 0-0. This history gives Henan a clear psychological edge.

League Table Positions

Henan Jianye Songshan Longmen sits 11th in the overall standings with 33 points from 26 matches (8 wins, 9 draws, 9 losses). Their away form is respectable: 6th in the away table with 16 points from 13 trips (4 wins, 4 draws, 5 losses). Shenzhen Peng City does not appear in the top 12 of the league table, indicating they are lower down the ladder and likely battling near the bottom. The gap in league position further supports the away side’s favoritism.

Win Probability: Shenzhen Peng City or Henan Jianye Songshan Longmen?

After normalizing bookmaker odds and adjusting for form, H2H, and standings, the outcome probabilities are: Shenzhen Peng City win – 25%, Draw – 35%, Henan Jianye Songshan Longmen win – 40%. The odds implied a tight contest, but the H2H sweep and league gap tilt the scales toward the away team. Henan’s recent run of draws also inflates the draw probability. Overall, Henan Jianye Songshan Longmen is the more likely winner, but a stalemate is a very realistic outcome.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers’ 1X2 odds vary: home win around 2.96–3.10, draw 2.30–3.50, away win 2.20–2.52. The market sees Henan Jianye Songshan Longmen as a marginal favorite. Considering the 40% win probability and the 35% draw chance, the double chance (Henan or Draw) sits at 75%. Based on the stats, the safest betting tip is to back Henan Jianye Songshan Longmen to avoid defeat. A low-scoring affair is also likely given both teams’ recent outputs.