Hercilio Luz SC - CF Caravaggio SC prediction 23 July 2026

Hercilio Luz SC vs CF Caravaggio SC prediction for the Campeonato Catarinense Serie B match on July 22, 2026. Based on the latest form, head-to-head record, and league standings, Hercilio Luz SC enters as the favorite with a 50% win probability, while the draw stands at 30% and CF Caravaggio SC has a 20% chance.

Team Form

Hercilio Luz SC is in outstanding form, having won their last five matches in the competition. They defeated Atletico Tubarao SC 2-0 away, Juventus Jaragua do Sul SC 1-0 at home, Blumenau SC 2-0 away, Guarani de Palhoca SC 2-1 away, and Fluminense SC 4-2 at home. This perfect run shows both defensive solidity (only 3 goals conceded in these five) and attacking efficiency (11 goals scored).

CF Caravaggio SC's recent form is mixed: a 2-2 draw away against Nacao SC, a 2-1 home win over Atletico Tubarao SC, a 1-2 away loss to Metropolitano SC, a 2-3 home loss to Guarani de Palhoca SC, and a 2-1 away win against Blumenau SC. That's two wins, one draw, and two losses in their last five outings.

Head-to-Head Record

The two sides have met twice before. CF Caravaggio SC holds the edge with one win and one draw. The most recent encounter on May 31, 2026, ended in a 2-2 draw at Caravaggio's ground. Earlier, on February 2, 2025, Caravaggio won 1-0 at home. Hercilio Luz SC has yet to beat Caravaggio.

League Table Positions

In the overall Campeonato Catarinense Serie B standings, CF Caravaggio SC sits 3rd with 18 points from 9 matches (5 wins, 3 draws, 1 loss), while Hercilio Luz SC is 4th with 17 points (5 wins, 2 draws, 2 losses). The home/away splits reveal a key dynamic: Hercilio Luz SC is the best home team in the league, topping the home table with 12 points from 5 games (4 wins, 0 draws, 1 loss, 14 goals scored, 3 conceded). CF Caravaggio SC, meanwhile, is the second-best away side, collecting 11 points from 5 away matches (3 wins, 2 draws, 0 losses, 16 goals scored, 4 conceded).

Win Probability: Hercilio Luz SC or CF Caravaggio SC?

After analyzing the available data, we calculate the probabilities as follows: Hercilio Luz SC win – 50%, draw – 30%, CF Caravaggio SC win – 20%. The odds from bookmakers imply a home win probability around 53%, but we have adjusted slightly downward due to Caravaggio's unbeaten away record and their positive head-to-head history. Hercilio's perfect recent form and dominant home performances still make them the most likely winner, but Caravaggio's resilience on the road cannot be ignored. The draw is a realistic outcome given Caravaggio's ability to avoid defeat away from home.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers see Hercilio Luz SC as the clear favorite. The best available odds for a home win range from 1.50 to 1.62, the draw is priced between 2.10 and 3.65, and an away win for CF Caravaggio SC is offered at 5.15 to 5.50. These odds reflect the home side's strong form and league position. Our prediction: based on the stats, Hercilio Luz SC is the most likely winner, but the value might lie in the draw or even a Caravaggio double chance, considering their away strength. A 1-0 or 2-1 home win seems plausible, but a low-scoring draw is also a strong possibility.