Hidalguense - Alebrijes CDMX prediction 10 October 2026

Our Hidalguense vs Alebrijes CDMX prediction for the Liga TDP match on October 10, 2026, gives the home side a 55% probability of winning. The game kicks off at 18:00, with Hidalguense looking to bounce back from a dreadful run of results. Bookmakers have installed them as strong favorites at odds of 1.50, but recent performances suggest this might not be straightforward.

Team Form

Hidalguense come into this fixture in terrible shape. Their last five matches, all played away from home, have yielded just one win and four defeats. The results were:

• 0–5 loss vs Jaiba Brava II (Oct 4, 2026)
• 4–2 win vs Santiago Tulantepec (Sep 4, 2026)
• 1–3 loss vs Tuzos Pachuca (Apr 17, 2026)
• 1–2 loss vs Atletico Toltecas (Apr 4, 2026)
• 0–11 loss vs Sport Street Soccer (Mar 21, 2026)

That 11-0 thrashing against Sport Street Soccer in March highlights serious defensive issues that have persisted. Across these five games, Hidalguense conceded 23 goals while scoring only 6. Their sole victory came against Santiago Tulantepec in early September, but they have since lost to Jaiba Brava II 5-0. Returning home might offer some comfort, but confidence is clearly low after such a poor run.

Alebrijes CDMX have been slightly more competitive, though they are also inconsistent. Their last five results:

• 3–1 win vs Club Atletico San Juan de Aragon II (Oct 2, 2026)
• 1–2 loss vs Formafutintegral (Sep 18, 2026)
• 4–1 win vs Chivas Alamos (Sep 11, 2026)
• 0–1 loss vs CF Pachuca 3 (May 2, 2026)
• 0–1 loss vs Aguilas del Valle de Teotihuacan (Apr 11, 2026)

Two wins and three losses in that span, with both victories coming at home. On the road, they have lost their last two away matches without scoring, falling 1-0 to CF Pachuca 3 and Aguilas del Valle de Teotihuacan. So while Alebrijes CDMX appear more stable than their opponents, their away form is a worry, especially as they travel to Hidalguense.

Head-to-Head Record

There is no head-to-head history between Hidalguense and Alebrijes CDMX. This will be the first ever meeting between the two sides. With no previous encounters, this match is a blank slate, making current form and betting odds the only reliable guides for our prediction.

Win Probability: Hidalguense or Alebrijes CDMX?

We calculated the win probabilities by starting with the bookmaker odds. The inverse of the 1X2 odds (1.50, 4.00, 5.00) gives an implied chance of 60% for a home win, 22% for the draw, and 18% for an away win after removing the margin. However, we adjusted these figures to reflect the teams’ recent form. Hidalguense’s four losses in five games and heavy defeats reduce their likelihood, while Alebrijes CDMX’s slightly better results and away struggles balance the scales. Our final assessment: Hidalguense has a 55% chance of winning, the draw is at 25%, and Alebrijes CDMX has a 20% chance. The home side remains the most probable winner, but the draw is a significant possibility given both teams’ vulnerabilities.

Odds & Match Prediction

The pre-match odds are: Hidalguense win at 1.50, draw at 4.00, and Alebrijes CDMX win at 5.00. These prices clearly indicate that bookmakers see Hidalguense as the favorites. Our Hidalguense vs Alebrijes CDMX prediction aligns with that view, but we caution that the home team’s form is alarming. A narrow home victory is the most likely outcome, but a low-scoring draw cannot be discounted. For betting tips, the 1.50 for a home win offers little value given the risk; the draw at 4.00 might attract some interest.