VPS Vaasa - HJK Helsinki prediction 2 November 2026

HJK Helsinki vs VPS Vaasa prediction for this Veikkausliiga clash on Oct 8, 2026. The match kicks off at 16:00, and based on the latest odds and team form, HJK Helsinki enters as the favorite with a 49% win probability. This betting tip analyzes team form, head-to-head record, and league standings to help you decide who will win.

Team Form

HJK Helsinki's recent form has been mixed. In their last five matches, they recorded:

• Sep 18: Gnistan 1-1 HJK Helsinki (draw)
• Sep 13: KuPS 0-0 HJK Helsinki (draw)
• Sep 9: HJK Helsinki 2-1 Inter Turku (win)
• Sep 5: Inter Turku 1-0 HJK Helsinki (cup loss)
• Aug 31: Ilves 1-2 HJK Helsinki (win)

That's two wins, two draws, and one defeat. HJK has scored 5 goals and conceded 3 in these five games, showing a solid defense but a lack of consistent firepower. Notably, their two draws came away from home against strong opponents, while their home win over Inter Turku was a positive result.

VPS Vaasa's form is also patchy. Their last five results:

• Sep 19: VPS Vaasa 0-2 KuPS (loss)
• Sep 14: Inter Turku 1-0 VPS Vaasa (loss)
• Sep 8: VPS Vaasa 1-0 AC Oulu (win)
• Aug 31: VPS Vaasa 0-1 Lahti (loss)
• Aug 22: Ilves 0-1 VPS Vaasa (win)

With two wins and three losses, VPS has struggled for consistency, especially in attack, scoring only 2 goals in these five matches while conceding 4. Their away form has been particularly poor, with back-to-back losses before the win at Ilves.

Head-to-Head Record

The overall head-to-head record heavily favors HJK Helsinki: 23 wins, 3 draws, and only 3 wins for VPS Vaasa. In the last five meetings, HJK won three and VPS won two. The most recent encounter was on Jul 18, 2026, when HJK Helsinki beat VPS Vaasa 2-1 at home. The previous match on May 22, 2026, saw VPS win 2-1 at home. So while HJK dominates historically, VPS has been competitive lately, winning two of the last five.

League Table Positions

In the Veikkausliiga standings, HJK Helsinki sits 3rd with 37 points from 22 matches (11 wins, 4 draws, 7 losses). VPS Vaasa is 6th with 33 points (9 wins, 6 draws, 7 losses). At home, HJK has a record of 6 wins, 2 draws, 3 losses, ranking 4th in the home table with 18 goals scored and 14 conceded. VPS away from home has 4 wins, 3 draws, 4 losses, placing them 5th in the away standings with 11 goals scored and 11 conceded. HJK's home advantage and higher league position give them an edge. Additionally, HJK has scored 36 goals overall (joint third-best in the league) while VPS has conceded only 22, indicating a potentially tight contest.

Win Probability: HJK Helsinki or VPS Vaasa?

After normalizing the bookmaker odds (home 1.60, draw 2.40, away 4.50) and adjusting for HJK's strong head-to-head record and home advantage, the win probabilities are: HJK Helsinki 49%, draw 33%, VPS Vaasa 18%. HJK Helsinki has a 49% chance of winning, the draw is at 33%, and VPS Vaasa has an 18% chance. HJK is the clear favorite to win this match.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers see HJK Helsinki as the favorite with odds of 1.60. The draw is priced at 2.40, and an away win for VPS Vaasa at 4.50. These odds imply a 49% probability for a home win, which aligns with the statistical analysis. Based on the stats, the most likely outcome is a home win, but the draw cannot be ruled out given both teams' recent form. Our HJK Helsinki vs VPS Vaasa prediction: HJK to win.