HJK Helsinki Women - HPS Women prediction 4 October 2026

Our HJK Helsinki Women vs HPS Women prediction for October 4 takes a close look at this Kansallinen Liga Women fixture. With HJK Helsinki Women enjoying a perfect home record and a 72% win probability, the hosts are expected to dominate at home against an HPS Women side sitting fourth in the table.

Team Form

HJK Helsinki Women's recent form in the league has been outstanding. They bounced back from a Europa Cup defeat with a 1-0 away win at KuPs Kuopio and a 6-1 thrashing of IF Gnistan Women, followed by a 5-2 victory at Tampereen Ilves. The only blemish was a 2-0 loss to SK Brann in European action, but domestically they remain virtually flawless. Their last five in all competitions read W, L, W, W, D, with 12 goals scored and 4 conceded.

HPS Women, meanwhile, are unbeaten in their last five outings. They recorded a 1-0 home win over Aland United Women, a goalless draw at KuPs, a 3-1 away success against IF Gnistan, and a 1-0 win against Tampereen Ilves, with the only draw coming in a Cup Women match against HJK itself (1-1). Their W, D, W, D, W sequence shows a solid defensive structure, conceeding only 2 goals in that span.

Head-to-Head Record

The head-to-head record heavily favours HJK Helsinki Women. Across the 17 meeetings in our data, the home side has won 11 times, with 4 draws and just 2 away wins. In the most recent five clashes, HJK won 4-0 at home in July 2026, 2-1 away in May 2026, and 4-0 in the Cup in March 2026, while the two latest matches ended in draws: a 3-3 away in August 2026 and a 1-1 cup tie in September 2026. HJK's home record in this fixture is particularly dominant, with heavy scorelines like 4-0 and 4-0 in their last two hosting occasions.

League Table Positions

HJK Helsinki Women sit top of the Kansallinen Liga Women with 39 points from 14 matches (13 wins, 0 draws, 1 loss). They have scored 38 goals and conceded only 9, with a home record of 7 straight wins, 25 goals for and only 3 against – a perfect 21 points from 21 available. HPS Women are 4th with 24 points (7 wins, 3 draws, 4 losses), scoring 19 and letting in 15. Away from home they have collected 11 points from 7 games (3 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats), netting just 6 times while conceding 8. The 15-point gap and the huge difference in goal difference underline the gulf between the two sides.

Win Probability: HJK Helsinki Women or HPS Women?

After weighting league positions, current form, home advantage, and the historical head-to-head data – with no odds available to adjust the baseline – we calculate the win probabilities as follows:

• HJK Helsinki Women win: 72%
• Draw: 20%
• HPS Women win: 8%

The home side's perfect record at their stadium (7 wins from 7, aggregate 25-3) and the fact that HPS have won only 3 of 7 away matches give HJK a decisive edge. The visitors have drawn 2 of their last 5 in all competitions, hence a 20% chance for a stalemate. HPS's low scoring output on the road (0.86 goals per away game) makes an away upset highly unlikely.

HJK Helsinki Women vs HPS Women Prediction

Odds for this match were not provided in the available data, but based on the statistics above, bookmakers would install HJK Helsinki Women as strong favourites. Taking everything into account, our HJK Helsinki Women vs HPS Women prediction points to a comfortable home win. We expect HJK to control possession, create multiple chances, and likely keep a clean sheet. A 2-0 or 3-0 scoreline appears the most probable outcome, with the hosts covering any theoretical handicap. Betting tips sugest backing HJK to win, possibly with a -1.5 Asian handicap, given their firepower at home.