| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 26:15 | +11 | 26 | |
| 2 | 12 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 26:18 | +8 | 25 | |
| 3 | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 33:14 | +19 | 24 | |
| 4 | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 19:8 | +11 | 22 | |
| 5 | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 23:14 | +9 | 22 | |
| 6 | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 19:14 | +5 | 21 | |
| 7 | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 22:14 | +8 | 19 | |
| 8 | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 25:19 | +6 | 18 | |
| 9 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 16:17 | -1 | 14 | |
| 10 | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 20:26 | -6 | 13 | |
| 11 | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 13:21 | -8 | 13 | |
| 12 | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 19:34 | -15 | 7 | |
| 13 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 18:26 | -8 | 6 | |
| 14 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 13:37 | -24 | 4 | |
| 15 | 11 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 9:24 | -15 | 2 |
Hlucin enter this 4 Liga match in strong shape, having won four of their last five games. Their form line reads L, W, W, W, W โ the only defeat a 4-1 loss at SK Stonava on Sep 26. Since then, they beat Pusta Polom 4-1 at home, Valasske Mezirici 5-2 away, SSK Bilovec 1-0 at home and Frydek-Mistek 2 2-1 away. That run of results shows both goalscoring power and defensive solidity.
Novy Jicin are more inconsistent. Their last five form is L, W, W, L, W. They lost 3-2 at Pusta Polom on Sep 27, having previously beaten SSK Bilovec 3-0 and Bridlicna 4-2. A 2-4 home loss to FK Bohumin and a 1-0 away win at SK Sulko Zabreh complete the mixed picture. While they score regularly, they have conceded in four of those five outings.
These teams have met twice, both in Friendly Clubs fixtures. Hlucin won 6-0 at home on Jun 12, 2021. The previous meeting on Jan 26, 2019 saw Novy Jicin and Hlucin draw 2-2. Overall, Hlucin lead the head-to-head with 1 win and 1 draw, and are yet to lose to their opponent.
We calculated win probabilities using the bookmaker odds as a base (inverse odds normalized to remove the margin) and then adjusted for recent form and H2H data. The raw implied probabilities from the odds (home 2.00 = 50%, draw 2.50 = 40%, away 4.33 = 23.1%) gave a base of 44.2% for Hlucin, 35.4% for the draw and 20.4% for Novy Jicin. Considering Hlucinโs four wins in five matches, home advantage and a perfect head-to-head record, we raise the Hlucin win probability to 48%, leaving the draw at 32% and Novy Jicin at 20%. Hlucin have the highest chance of winning.
Bookmakers price a Hlucin win at 2.00, the draw at 2.50 and a Novy Jicin away win at 4.33. Those odds reflect Hlucin as the clear favorite. Our analysis, which factors in the dominant form and unbeaten H2H record, also points to a Hlucin victory as the most likely outcome. The draw odds at 2.50 may attract those who recall the 2019 H2H stalemate, but based on current stats the home win is the strongest betting tip.