Honefoss BK - KFUM Oslo prediction 30 September 2026

The Honefoss BK vs KFUM Oslo prediction for this Norwegian Cup match on September 30 at 17:00 points to a clear away favorite. Based on our win probability model, KFUM Oslo has a 52% chance of winning, while Honefoss BK sits at 21% and the draw at 27%. Read on for a full betting tips breakdown with odds, head-to-head and team form analysis.

Team Form

Honefoss BK comes into this Cup tie in superb shape. Their last five matches in all competitions show four wins and one draw (W-W-D-W-W). Most recently, they beat Tromsdalen 2-1 at home in the 2nd Division on Sep 27. Significantly, all five recent outings saw Honefoss score at least one goal, with the attack producing 2+ goals in three of those games.

KFUM Oslo has been more mixed but still carries threat. Their last five results read W-W-L-L-W across Eliteserien and the Cup. They won away at Sarpsborg 08 (3-1) and at home to Aalesund (2-1), but suffered back-to-back defeats at Molde (0-2) and IK Start (1-4). The most recent result was a 3-1 away win in the league, showing they can bounce back quickly.

Head-to-Head Record

The head-to-head between these sides heavily favors KFUM Oslo. The last meeting, a Cup fixture in May 2023, ended 4-1 to KFUM Oslo at Honefoss. Two friendly matches in 2018 both finished 2-2 draws. Overall, KFUM Oslo has one win and two draws in three head-to-head matches, while Honefoss BK is yet to win. The away side has scored at least two goals in two of the three encounters.

Win Probability: Honefoss BK or KFUM Oslo?

The win probability analysis gives KFUM Oslo a 52% chance to progress, the draw a 27% likelihood, and Honefoss BK a 21% chance. These figures are derived from the average bookmaker odds for the 1X2 market, normalized to remove the margin, and then adjusted slightly for current form and the head-to-head edge. KFUM Oslo plays in a higher division (Eliteserien) and has a recent Cup win over Honefoss, which supports their favorite status. However, Honefoss BK’s unbeaten five-match run at home (4W-1D) cannot be ignored and justifies the 21% upset potential.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers see KFUM Oslo as the clear match outcome favorite. Across the five bookmakers tracked, the away win odds range from 1.56 to 1.95, with an average around 1.76. The draw is offered between 2.62 and 4.50, while a Honefoss BK victory pays out as high as 4.85. The odds strongly align with the Honefoss BK vs KFUM Oslo prediction that an away win is the most likely scenario.

Based on the stats, form, and head-to-head, the safest betting tip is a KFUM Oslo victory. The risk-reward balance might also favor the draw given Honefoss’s resilience, but the away side’s extra quality and proven ability to win on this ground in the Cup tilt the scales. Our final prediction: KFUM Oslo to win, with a possible correct score of 1-2 or 0-2.