Vanersborgs FK - IFK Kumla prediction 11 October 2026

The Vanersborgs FK vs IFK Kumla prediction for this Sweden Division 2 clash on October 11, 2026, points to a tight contest. Based on recent form and head-to-head data, Vanersborgs FK have a 40% win probability, IFK Kumla sit at 30%, and the draw is also at 30%. The match kicks off at 17:00 local time.

Team Form

Vanersborgs FK come into this match with a mixed run: one win, one draw, and three losses in their last five outings (W1 D1 L3). Their most recent result was a 3-3 home draw against these same opponents, IFK Kumla, on October 8. Before that, they lost 1-0 away to Lidkopings FK, 3-1 at home to Husqvarna FF, and 2-1 at home to IK Tord, with a 1-0 away win at Stenungsunds the only bright spot. The side has struggled for consistency, conceding in four of those five matches.

IFK Kumla's last five matches show a similar pattern: one win, two draws, and two losses (W1 D2 L2). They drew 3-3 away at Vanersborgs FK, lost 3-1 away to Skara FC, beat Lidkopings FK 1-0 at home, lost 2-1 away to Herrestads AIF, and drew 0-0 at home with Motala AIF FK. The away form is a concern, with only one win in their last four road trips.

Head-to-Head Record

In the last six meetings, Vanersborgs FK have won three, IFK Kumla one, and two ended in draws. The most recent encounter was just three days ago, a 3-3 thriller at Vanersborgs FK's ground. The overall head-to-head record clearly favors the home side, with Vanersborgs FK unbeaten in four of the last five H2H matches.

• Oct 8, 2026: Vanersborgs FK 3-3 IFK Kumla
• Apr 25, 2026: IFK Kumla 0-0 Vanersborgs FK
• Aug 2, 2025: IFK Kumla 1-2 Vanersborgs FK
• May 24, 2025: Vanersborgs FK 2-1 IFK Kumla
• Jun 23, 2022: IFK Kumla 3-1 Vanersborgs FK

Win Probability: Vanersborgs FK or IFK Kumla?

After analyzing the available data, we assign the following win probabilities: Vanersborgs FK 40%, draw 30%, IFK Kumla 30%. This calculation is based on the head-to-head record (3 wins for Vanersborgs FK vs 1 for IFK Kumla), the home advantage, and the recent form of both sides. While IFK Kumla have been slightly more consistent with two draws in their last five, Vanersborgs FK's historical edge at home and the quick turnaround from a high-scoring draw suggest they have a narrow upper hand. The draw remains a strong possibility given the teams' last two meetings both ended level.

Odds & Match Prediction

At the time of writing, bookmakers' odds for this fixture are not yet available. However, based on the stats, Vanersborgs FK are the marginal favorites. A draw would not be a surprise, and IFK Kumla have shown they can compete away from home. Our prediction: Vanersborgs FK are more likely to win, but the value may lie in the draw market if odds become available.