IK Start - Ham-Kam prediction 11 October 2026

Looking for an IK Start vs Ham-Kam prediction? The Eliteserien match on October 11, 2026 at Sparebanken Sør Arena in Kristiansand sees home side IK Start as the clear favorite with a 50% win probability, based on recent form and betting odds. Ham-Kam, struggling on the road, is given only a 20% chance, while the draw sits at 30%.

Team Form

IK Start come into this fixture with strong momentum, recording four wins in their last five outings (W-W-L-W-W). That run includes a 2-0 home victory against Brann in the Eliteserien and an emphatic 5-1 cup win at Raufoss. The only blemish was a 3-0 league defeat at Sandefjord. At home, Start have been reliable, losing just once in their last five games at Sparebanken Sør Arena.

Ham-Kam’s form makes grim reading for away fans. They have won just once in their last five competitive matches (L-W-L-L-D), with that solitary victory coming in the cup at Kjelsas. In the Eliteserien, they have lost to Tromsø (3-2), Molde (5-1), and Rosenborg (4-0), while only managing a 2-2 home draw against Kristiansund. Away from home, Ham-Kam have shipped 12 goals in their last four league fixtures.

Head-to-Head Record

Across 10 previous meetings, IK Start have won twice, Ham-Kam four times, with four draws. The most recent clash, in April 2026, saw Ham-Kam claim a 2-1 home win. Historically, Start have struggled at home in this fixture: their last home H2H, in July 2021, ended in a 4-1 defeat. Ham-Kam therefore hold a slight psychological edge, although the current form gap could overturn those historical trends.

League Table Positions

Neither IK Start nor Ham-Kam feature in the top 12 of the Eliteserien table. Both sides are operating in the lower reaches of the division, making this a potentially important six-pointer to avoid being dragged into a relegation battle.

Win Probability: IK Start or Ham-Kam?

We calculate the win probabilities as follows: IK Start 50%, draw 30%, Ham-Kam 20%.

Bookmaker odds (average 1.93 home, 2.61 draw, 3.69 away) imply a 44%-33%-23% split after removing the overround. Adjusting for IK Start’s excellent recent home form and Ham-Kam’s poor away results – 3 losses and a draw in their last 4 league matches on the road – the probability shifts further in favour of the home side. The percentage for a draw remains realistic given Ham-Kam’s occasional resilience, but an away win looks unlikely based on all available data.

IK Start vs Ham-Kam Prediction & Odds

Bookmakers see IK Start as the firm favourite, pricing a home win as short as 1.85 and no higher than 2.01 across the market. The draw is offered around 2.28-3.94, and an away win from 3.50 to 4.00. The match outcome that fits the numbers best is a home victory for Start. While Ham-Kam have H2H pedigree, their current away slump and IK Start’s surging confidence at Sparebanken Sør Arena point to a home win. Based on the stats, IK Start are the most likely winners, though a low-scoring draw cannot be completely ruled out.