Raufoss - IK Start prediction 6 October 2026

Raufoss vs IK Start prediction for the Cup match on Oct 6, 2026, at 16:00. IK Start are the favorites with a 48% win probability, while Raufoss have an 18% chance and the draw stands at 34%. This Norwegian Cup tie pits a second-tier side against top-flight opposition, and the odds reflect that gap.

Team Form

Raufoss enter this match with two wins and three losses in their last five (L,W,W,L,L). A 3-0 away win at Elverum in the Cup on Sep 16 and a 2-1 home victory over Odds BK on Sep 13 showed their potential, but a 9-1 thrashing at Kongsvinger and a 0-3 home loss to Sandnes Ulf exposed serious defensive issues. Their most recent outing was a 2-0 home defeat to Stromsgodset on Sep 20.

IK Start have recorded three wins in their last five (W,L,W,W,L). They beat Brann 2-1 in a friendly on Oct 2, lost 3-0 at Sandefjord in the Eliteserien, edged Vindbjart 3-2 in the Cup on Sep 16, and secured a 2-0 home win over Brann on Sep 13. Their only other defeat was a 2-0 loss at Aalesund. Competing in Norway's top division gives them a clear quality advantage.

Head-to-Head Record

The overall head-to-head record shows Raufoss with 2 home wins, 3 draws, and 6 away wins against IK Start. However, recent meetings have been more balanced. The most recent clash on Oct 4, 2025, saw IK Start thrash Raufoss 4-0 at home. In the last five encounters, Raufoss have won twice, drawn once, and lost twice. Raufoss have won only one of their last three home matches against IK Start.

League Table Positions

Exact league table positions are not available, but the divisional gap is crucial. IK Start play in the Eliteserien, Norway's top tier, while Raufoss compete in the 1 Division. This difference in league quality heavily influences the win probability and betting odds.

Win Probability: Raufoss or IK Start?

Based on the odds, team form, head-to-head record, and the divisional difference, we calculate the win probabilities as follows: Raufoss has an 18% chance of winning, the draw is at 34%, and IK Start has a 48% chance. The bookmakers' odds imply a similar distribution, with IK Start as the clear favorite. The away side's higher league status and slightly better recent form tilt the balance in their favor, though the draw probability remains high, suggesting a tight contest.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers offer a home win for Raufoss at odds between 4.23 and 4.65, a draw at 2.32 to 3.70, and an away win for IK Start at 1.60 to 2.10. The best price for an IK Start victory is 1.60, indicating strong confidence in the visitors. For those looking for Raufoss vs IK Start betting tips, the value might lie in the draw given its 34% probability. Our prediction: based on the stats, IK Start are the more likely winners, but a draw cannot be ruled out. A 1-1 or 0-1 scoreline seems plausible.