Urawa Red Diamonds Women - INAC Leonessa Women prediction 24 October 2026

The Urawa Red Diamonds Women vs INAC Leonessa Women prediction for October 24, 2026, points to a tight WE League Women clash where the home side holds a narrow edge. Based on our win probability model, Urawa Red Diamonds Women has a 40% chance of winning, the draw is at 30%, and INAC Leonessa Women has a 30% chance. The match kicks off at 06:00 at Urawa's ground, with both teams sitting in the top two of the league table.

Team Form

Urawa Red Diamonds Women come into this match with three wins, one draw, and one loss in their last five outings. Their most recent result was a 2-1 away defeat to Jef United Ichihara Chiba Women on October 18, but prior to that they secured back-to-back home victories: 2-1 against Vegalta Sendai Women and 4-2 against Nippon Tokyo Verdy Beleza Women. A 1-1 draw at Albirex Niigata Women and a 2-0 home win over Parceiro Nagano Women complete the picture of a side in solid form, especially at home where they have won both league matches this season.

INAC Leonessa Women's recent form is more mixed, with one win, two draws, and two losses in their last five. They bounced back with a 4-3 away win at Vegalta Sendai Women on October 18, but that followed a 1-1 draw at Parceiro Nagano Women and a 0-0 stalemate at Vegalta Sendai Women. Two defeats—0-3 at home to Sanfrecce Hiroshima Women and 2-3 away at Jef United Ichihara Chiba Women—highlight some defensive vulnerabilities, though they remain dangerous on the road.

Head-to-Head Record

The overall head-to-head record heavily favors INAC Leonessa Women, who have won 14 of the 25 meetings between the sides, with Urawa Red Diamonds Women winning 8 and 3 draws. In the most recent five encounters, the results are more balanced: Urawa won 4-1 at home in January 2025, INAC won 2-1 at Urawa in November 2025, and there were draws (1-1 in September 2025 and 1-1 in March 2024) plus a 1-0 away win for Urawa in March 2025. The last match at this venue ended in a 2-1 away victory for INAC, so the visitors will travel with confidence.

League Table Positions

INAC Leonessa Women currently top the WE League Women standings with 10 points from 5 matches (3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss). Urawa Red Diamonds Women are second with 9 points from 4 games (3 wins, 1 loss). Urawa have a perfect home record—2 wins, 8 goals scored, 2 conceded—while INAC boast the best away record in the division with 2 wins and 1 loss from 3 trips, scoring 9 goals. A win for either side would be a significant statement in the title race.

Win Probability: Urawa Red Diamonds Women or INAC Leonessa Women?

We calculate the win probabilities as follows: Urawa Red Diamonds Women 40%, draw 30%, INAC Leonessa Women 30%. The bookmakers' odds (home 2.62, draw 2.30, away 3.25) imply a fair probability of 33.95% for a home win, 38.68% for the draw, and 27.37% for an away win after removing the margin. We adjust these figures upward for Urawa due to their superior recent form and flawless home league record, while INAC's strong away performances and historical H2H dominance keep them competitive. The draw remains a realistic outcome given the tight nature of the fixture.

Odds & Match Prediction

The available 1X2 odds are: Urawa Red Diamonds Women 2.62, Draw 2.30, INAC Leonessa Women 3.25. Bookmakers see the draw as the most likely single outcome, but our analysis suggests Urawa's home advantage and momentum give them the best chance of securing three points. Based on the stats, the most probable result is a narrow home win, though a low-scoring draw cannot be ruled out. For betting tips, the home win offers value relative to our probability model, while the under 2.5 goals market may also appeal given the stakes.