EDP Independiente Medellin - Independiente Santa Fe prediction 6 October 2026

The EDP Independiente Medellin vs Independiente Santa Fe prediction for October 6, 2026, sees the hosts as slight favourites according to bookmakers, but recent form and head-to-head records point to a tight Primera A contest. EDP Independiente Medellin has a 44% win probability, while the draw stands at 28% and Independiente Santa Fe at 28%.

Team Form

EDP Independiente Medellin's last five matches: D, L, W, D, L. They drew 2-2 at home to Club Deportivo Los Millonarios on Sep 30, lost 2-0 away to CD Junior FC on Sep 27, beat Jaguares de Cordoba 2-1 at home on Sep 23, drew 2-2 away at Atletico Bucaramanga on Sep 18, and lost 2-1 away to Boyaca Chico on Sep 13. That's five points from a possible 15, with only one win.

Independiente Santa Fe's last five: W, D, L, W, L. They won 2-1 away at Deportivo Pereira on Sep 29, drew 1-1 away to Union Magdalena in the Cup on Sep 26, lost 1-0 at home to Deportivo Cali on Sep 23, won 4-1 away at Alianza Petrolera on Sep 19, and lost 2-0 away to Vasco da Gama RJ in the Copa Sudamericana on Sep 15. That's seven points from five, with two wins and a draw.

Head-to-Head Record

In 28 previous meetings, EDP Independiente Medellin have won 6, Independiente Santa Fe 12, with 10 draws. The last five clashes: Santa Fe won 2-1 at home in March 2026, the teams drew 1-1 in Medellin in October 2025, Medellin won 3-0 away in the Cup in October 2025, Santa Fe won 2-1 away in the Cup in September 2025, and Santa Fe won 2-1 away in the league in June 2025. Santa Fe have won three of the last five, with one draw and one Medellin win.

League Table Positions

In the Primera A overall standings, Independiente Santa Fe sit 7th with 29 points from 19 matches (7 wins, 8 draws, 4 losses). EDP Independiente Medellin are 11th with 26 points (7 wins, 5 draws, 7 losses). The away table shows Santa Fe in 4th with 14 points from 10 games, while Medellin's home form is not among the top eight – they have collected 14 points from 10 home fixtures, averaging 1.4 points per game.

Win Probability: EDP Independiente Medellin or Independiente Santa Fe?

Based on odds, form, head-to-head record, and league positions, we calculate the probabilities as: EDP Independiente Medellin win 44%, draw 28%, Independiente Santa Fe win 28%. The bookmakers' odds imply a home win probability around 50%, but the visitors' superior recent form, better H2H record, and higher league standing reduce the gap. This is a match where the draw is a realistic outcome, and Santa Fe have a genuine chance of taking all three points.

Odds & Match Prediction

Selected bookmaker odds: home win 1.96, draw 3.63, away win 4.12. Other books offer similar ranges, with home odds as low as 1.85 and away odds up to 4.20. Bookmakers see EDP Independiente Medellin as the favourite, but the stats suggest a more balanced contest. Our prediction: a draw or a narrow away win are the most likely outcomes based on the data. The home side's inconsistent form and Santa Fe's strong away record (4th in the away table) make the 4.12 for an away win an attractive betting tip for those looking for value.