Independiente Rivadavia - Atletico Tucuman prediction 21 September 2026

Independiente Rivadavia vs Atletico Tucuman prediction for the Argentina Cup match on Sep 16 at 22:00 at Estadio Alberto Gallardo in Lima. The grass-surface venue has a capacity of 11,600 and the referee is Jorge Baliño. Based on normalized bookmaker odds, recent form and the head-to-head record, Independiente Rivadavia has a 40% chance of winning, the draw is at 38%, and Atletico Tucuman has a 22% chance.

Team Form

Independiente Rivadavia have three wins, one draw and one defeat in their last five matches. Their scoring record across those five outings is 10 goals for and 7 against. The recent sequence is W, L, W, W, D. On Sep 12, they beat Aldosivi 4-3 at home. On Sep 06, they lost 3-1 at River Plate. On Aug 31, they beat Racing Club 3-1 at home. In the Cup on Aug 26, they won 2-0 at Aldosivi, and on Aug 22 they drew 0-0 at CA Independiente.

Atletico Tucuman have two wins, two draws and one loss in their last five matches, with 4 goals scored and 3 conceded. Their recent sequence is L, W, D, D, W. They lost 2-1 at home to River Plate on Sep 12, won 2-1 at Racing Club on Sep 07, drew 0-0 with CA Belgrano de Cordoba on Aug 30, drew 0-0 with Instituto AC Cordoba on Aug 22, and won 1-0 at Estudiantes Rio Cuarto on Aug 17.

Head-to-Head Record

The two previous matches in the supplied data show Independiente Rivadavia with 1 win, Atletico Tucuman with 0 wins and 1 draw. Independiente Rivadavia won 2-1 at home on Jan 24 2026 in the Primera Division. The most recent meeting, at Atletico Tucuman on Jul 26 2026, ended 0-0. There have been only 3 goals across those two H2H meetings.

Win Probability: Independiente Rivadavia or Atletico Tucuman?

The raw implied probabilities from the listed 1X2 odds, after normalizing to remove the bookmaker margin, are roughly 37% for Independiente Rivadavia, 40% for the draw and 23% for Atletico Tucuman. Because Independiente Rivadavia have better recent form and are unbeaten in the head-to-head meetings, we adjust the outcome probabilities slightly.

The probability conclusion is: Independiente Rivadavia has a 40% chance of winning, the draw is at 38%, and Atletico Tucuman has a 22% chance. These numbers total 100%. Independiente Rivadavia are the more likely winner, but the draw is close and cannot be ignored.

Odds & Match Prediction

The available 1X2 odds range from 2.25 to 2.45 for an Independiente Rivadavia win, 1.91 to 3.04 for the draw and 3.50 to 4.33 for an Atletico Tucuman win. Bookmakers see Independiente Rivadavia and the draw as the closest outcomes, with Atletico Tucuman as the underdog.

As a betting tip, Independiente Rivadavia to win is the primary match outcome based on the stats. The draw is also worth considering because the draw odds are short and Atletico Tucuman have been difficult to beat, with two 0-0 draws in their recent away matches. Based on the stats, Independiente Rivadavia vs Atletico Tucuman looks like a low-margin Argentina Cup match, with Independiente Rivadavia as a slight favorite. This Independiente Rivadavia vs Atletico Tucuman prediction therefore favors the home side, but the draw is a live outcome.