Rhode Island FC - Indy Eleven prediction 1 October 2026

Indy Eleven vs Rhode Island FC prediction for the USL Championship match on Oct 1, 2026 at 00:30. Rhode Island FC hosts this encounter, and bookmakers see the home side as the favourite with a 40% win probability. The head-to-head record is perfectly balanced, but current form suggests a tight contest.

Team Form

Rhode Island FC's last five results: L, L, W, D, L. They lost 2-0 at Charleston Battery on Sep 27, then fell 1-2 at home to Miami FC, before a 3-0 win at Sporting Jax. A 1-1 home draw with Louisville and a 0-1 defeat at Tulsa Roughnecks complete a mixed run. Indy Eleven's recent form reads L, L, W, D, D. They lost 0-2 at home to Miami FC, 0-1 to Oakland Roots, then thrashed Brooklyn FC 4-0. A 2-2 draw at New Mexico United and another 2-2 home draw with Birmingham Legion show some improvement. Both sides have struggled for consistency, with just one win in five for each.

Head-to-Head Record

These two have met four times, with Rhode Island FC winning twice and Indy Eleven also claiming two victories. No draws. The most recent clash on May 31, 2026 ended in a 1-0 home win for Indy Eleven. The only away win of the series came in November 2024 when Rhode Island FC triumphed 3-2 at Indy Eleven. The tight history underlines how evenly matched they usually are.

League Table Positions

Neither side appears in the top 12 of the overall USL Championship standings. However, Indy Eleven boast the league's third-best home record (27 points from 14 home games), though they are the away team here. Rhode Island FC’s home form does not rank among the top eight, suggesting they lack a strong fortress at home. Both teams will be looking to climb from mid-table.

Win Probability: Rhode Island FC or Indy Eleven?

Based on the average bookmaker odds (home 1.90, draw 2.30, away 3.50), team form, head-to-head history, and the home advantage factor, we calculate the win probabilities as:

• Rhode Island FC win – 40%
• Draw – 32%
• Indy Eleven win – 28%

Despite Rhode Island FC’s shaky recent form, the odds still tilt in their favour because they play at home. Indy Eleven’s slightly better recent results (two draws) push their chances near the 30% mark, but a home victory remains the single most likely outcome.

Indy Eleven vs Rhode Island FC Prediction & Odds

Bookmakers offer a 1X2 market with odds around 1.90 for a Rhode Island FC win, 2.30 for the draw, and 3.50 for an Indy Eleven victory. Our match prediction, based on the stats, is a home win for Rhode Island FC, though a draw is also a realistic scenario. Punters looking for betting tips may find value in the home win at close to even money, while the draw odds reflect a 32% implied chance in our model.