Inverness CT - Arbroath prediction 17 October 2026

The Inverness CT vs Arbroath prediction points towards a home victory in this Scottish Championship fixture on Oct 17 at 15:00. Based on the latest odds, recent form, and head-to-head record, Inverness CT enters the match as the clear favorite with a calculated win probability of 58%, while Arbroath faces an uphill battle at 17%.

Team Form

Inverness CT's recent form shows a strong run at home, with results reading W, W, D, W, L in their last five matches. They secured back-to-back 2-0 home wins against Stenhousemuir on Oct 10 and Greenock Morton on Sep 25, and an impressive 3-1 away victory at Ayr United on Sep 12. The only blemishes were a 2-2 draw at Livingston and a 0-2 home loss to Raith Rovers.

Arbroath's form makes for grim reading, with their last five results standing at L, L, W, L, L. They have suffered heavy away defeats recently, losing 3-0 at Partick Thistle on Oct 3, 1-0 at Stenhousemuir, and 4-0 at Raith Rovers. Their sole victory in this run was a 2-1 home win over Queens Park, but a 1-2 home loss to Greenock Morton last time out underlines their struggles.

Head-to-Head Record

The overall head-to-head record heavily favors Inverness CT, who have 13 wins compared to Arbroath's 9, with 9 draws. The most recent meeting on Aug 8 ended in a 0-0 draw at Arbroath. However, Inverness CT won the last home encounter convincingly, 3-0 on Apr 26, 2025. Arbroath did claim a 2-0 win at Inverness CT in December 2024, proving they can be dangerous on the break.

League Table Positions

Inverness CT sits 5th in the Championship with 13 points from 9 matches (3 wins, 4 draws, 2 losses), scoring 11 and conceding 9. Arbroath is 8th with 11 points from 10 games (3 wins, 2 draws, 5 losses), having scored only 7 goals while conceding 15. The home table shows Inverness CT in 4th with 8 points from 5 home games, while Arbroath's away form places them 8th in the away standings with just 4 points from 5 road trips.

Win Probability: Inverness CT or Arbroath?

Calculating the win probability based on the implied odds (inverse of the best available odds, normalized to remove the bookmaker margin), recent form, and home advantage, the chances are clear. Inverness CT has a 58% chance of winning, the draw stands at 25%, and Arbroath has a 17% chance. The home side's superior league position, strong home form, and dominant H2H record at this venue make them the most likely winner.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers see Inverness CT as the strong favorite, with the best home win odds at 1.53. The draw is priced around 2.28, while an Arbroath away win can be backed as high as 6.00. Based on the stats, the prediction is a home win for Inverness CT. The value in the odds market appears to lie with the home side, given their consistent scoring at home and Arbroath's poor defensive record on the road.