Inverness CT - Greenock Morton prediction 25 September 2026

Inverness CT vs Greenock Morton prediction for the Scottish Championship clash on Sep 25, 2026, at 19:45. Based on our analysis of team form, head-to-head record, and league standings, Inverness CT enters this match as the favorite with a 50% win probability, while Greenock Morton has just a 20% chance of an upset.

Team Form

Inverness CT's recent form shows inconsistency: D, W, L, L, D in their last five matches. They drew 2-2 away at Livingston, beat Ayr United 3-1 away, lost 0-2 at home to Raith Rovers, lost 1-3 away to Stenhousemuir, and drew 1-1 at home with Partick Thistle. The team has managed only one win in that run, with two draws and two defeats.

Greenock Morton is in dire form: L, L, L, D, L. They lost 0-1 at home to Dunfermline, were thrashed 1-4 at home by Livingston, lost 1-2 away to Queens Park, drew 1-1 away at Ayr United, and lost 1-2 at home to Arbroath. Morton are winless in five, with four losses and a single draw, conceding 10 goals in that span.

Head-to-Head Record

Historically, the head-to-head record is tight: Inverness CT has 13 home wins, Greenock Morton 12 away wins, and 10 draws across all meetings. In the last five encounters, Inverness hold a slight edge with two wins, two draws, and one loss:

• Mar 2, 2024: Greenock Morton 0–2 Inverness CT
• Dec 30, 2023: Inverness CT 0–0 Greenock Morton
• Dec 12, 2023: Greenock Morton 2–1 Inverness CT
• Apr 1, 2023: Greenock Morton 1–2 Inverness CT
• Feb 4, 2023: Inverness CT 2–2 Greenock Morton

League Table Positions

Inverness CT sits 8th in the Scottish Championship with 7 points from 7 matches (1 win, 4 draws, 2 losses). They have scored 7 goals and conceded 9. At home, they have earned just 2 points from 3 games (0 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss), a record that explains their lowly position.

Greenock Morton is rock bottom in 10th place with only 1 point (0 wins, 1 draw, 6 losses). They have scored 4 goals and conceded 13, the worst defensive record in the league. The gap between the sides is 6 points, and Morton’s away form has been equally poor, though specific away standings are not listed in the top eight.

Win Probability: Inverness CT or Greenock Morton?

Inverness CT has a 50% chance of winning, the draw is at 30%, and Greenock Morton has a 20% chance. These probabilities are derived from the average bookmaker odds (home win ~1.35, draw ~2.86, away win ~6.93), which imply a 60% home win probability after removing the margin. However, Inverness’s winless home record (0W,2D,1L) and Morton’s desperation to climb off the bottom adjust the chances slightly, increasing the likelihood of a draw and a possible away upset. Still, Morton’s dreadful form makes an away win the least likely outcome.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers see Inverness CT as the clear favorite: home win odds are as low as 1.33, draw odds range from 2.40 to 4.85, and away win odds reach up to 9.33. These betting tips reflect the gulf in league positions and overall quality. Based on the stats, Inverness CT is the most likely winner, but the draw cannot be ruled out given their home struggles. A low-scoring affair is probable, with a 1-0 or 2-1 home win a plausible outcome.