Uzbekistan - Iran prediction 24 September 2026
Uzbekistan
Iran
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The Iran vs Uzbekistan prediction for the Friendly International match on Nov 18, 2025, points towards a comfortable win for the home side. Based on recent form and head-to-head record, Iran has a 70% chance to win, with a draw at 25% and an Uzbekistan win at just 5%.
Team Form & Recent Results
Iran come into this match unbeaten in their last five outings. They recorded three consecutive draws against Egypt (1-1), Belgium (0-0), and New Zealand (2-2) before securing back-to-back friendly wins over Mali (2-0) and Gambia (3-1). The team is difficult to break down and showed attacking threat in the last two games.
Uzbekistan, on the other hand, have suffered five straight defeats. They lost 3-1 to Congo DR, 5-0 to Portugal, 3-1 to Colombia, 2-1 to the Netherlands, and 2-0 to Canada. Defensive frailties have been evident, conceding 15 goals in those five matches while scoring only three.
Head-to-Head Record (H2H)
The head-to-head numbers heavily favor Iran. In the last ten meetings, Iran have won seven and drawn three, never losing to Uzbekistan. The most recent competitive clash ended in a 2-2 draw on Mar 25, 2025, during World Cup qualification. Iran's historical dominance, combined with their current form, gives them a significant edge.
Win Probability: Iran or Uzbekistan?
Taking all available data into accountโteam form, H2H record, and home advantageโwe calculate the following outcome probabilities:
- Iran win: 70%
- Draw: 25%
- Uzbekistan win: 5%
Iran's unbeaten run, flawless H2H record, and the fact that they are playing at home make them overwhelming favorites. Uzbekistan's five-game losing streak and leaky defense leave them with almost no realistic chance of an upset. A draw is possible if Iran struggle to convert chances, but the most likely result remains a home victory.
Overall, our Iran vs Uzbekistan prediction is a comfortable win for the hosts. Without published odds in the data, the statistical model points clearly to Iran covering any expected handicap.
Iran vs Uzbekistan โ FAQ
- Who will win Iran vs Uzbekistan?
- Iran have a 70% chance of winning, while a draw stands at 25% and Uzbekistan at just 5%. The prediction strongly favors Iran based on their unbeaten form and dominant head-to-head record.
- What is the win probability for Iran?
- Iran's win probability is 70%. This high percentage is driven by their five-match unbeaten run (2W, 3D), home advantage, and the fact they have never lost to Uzbekistan (7W, 3D in 10 meetings).
- When is the Iran vs Uzbekistan match?
- The match takes place on Nov 18, 2025, at 16:00 UTC. It is a Friendly International fixture.
- What is the head-to-head record between Iran and Uzbekistan?
- Iran dominate the head-to-head with 7 wins, 3 draws, and 0 losses in the last 10 meetings. The most recent draw was a 2-2 result on Mar 25, 2025, in World Cup qualification.