Italy - Turkey prediction 5 October 2026
Italy
TurkeyItalyTurkey
FranceItalyTurkeyItalyItalyBelgiumGreeceItalyLuxembourgItalyBosnia-HerzegovinaItalyItalyNorthern IrelandItalyBrazilItalyAlgeriaPolandItalyItalyFranceGermanyItalyItalyGermanyItalyFranceItalyTurkeyBelgiumTurkeyTurkeyItalyTurkeyFranceTurkeyNorth MacedoniaTurkeyUSATurkeyParaguayAustraliaTurkeyVenezuelaTurkeyTurkeyNorth MacedoniaKosovoTurkeyTurkeyRomaniaMexicoTurkeyUSATurkeyHungaryTurkeyItalyTurkeyTurkeyItaly| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Portugal | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 9:4 | +5 | 12 |
| 2 |  Montenegro | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 7:4 | +3 | 10 |
| 3 |  France | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 7:2 | +5 | 10 |
| 4 |  Sweden | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 7:3 | +4 | 10 |
| 5 |  Switzerland | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8:1 | +7 | 9 |
| 6 |  Spain | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10:4 | +6 | 9 |
| 7 |  Netherlands | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 7:5 | +2 | 8 |
| 8 |  Northern Ireland | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4:0 | +4 | 8 |
| 9 |  Austria | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 9:5 | +4 | 8 |
| 10 |  Bosnia-Herzegovina | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 6:3 | +3 | 8 |
| 11 |  Greece | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5:3 | +2 | 8 |
| 12 |  Finland | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 9:1 | +8 | 7 |
| 13 |  Malta | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4:2 | +2 | 7 |
| 14 |  Iceland | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7:1 | +6 | 7 |
| 15 |  Slovakia | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5:2 | +3 | 7 |
| 16 |  Cyprus | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5:3 | +2 | 7 |
| 17 |  Italy | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8:5 | +3 | 7 |
| 18 |  Hungary | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3:2 | +1 | 7 |
| 19 |  England | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 11:3 | +8 | 6 |
| 20 |  Denmark | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 7:7 | 0 | 6 |
| 21 |  Albania | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6:2 | +4 | 6 |
| 22 |  Belgium | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6:5 | +1 | 6 |
| 23 |  Azerbaijan | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2:1 | +1 | 5 |
| 24 |  Estonia | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2:1 | +1 | 5 |
| 25 |  Kosovo | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3:4 | -1 | 5 |
| 26 |  Germany | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3:2 | +1 | 5 |
| 27 |  Ireland | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 6:4 | +2 | 5 |
| 28 |  Slovenia | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3:2 | +1 | 4 |
| 29 |  Lithuania | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3:2 | +1 | 4 |
| 30 |  Faroe Islands | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 5:5 | 0 | 4 |
| 31 |  Armenia | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4:5 | -1 | 4 |
| 32 |  Belarus | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4:2 | +2 | 4 |
| 33 |  Scotland | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2:3 | -1 | 4 |
| 34 |  Moldova | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3:4 | -1 | 4 |
| 35 |  Poland | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7:4 | +3 | 4 |
| 36 |  Ukraine | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2:5 | -3 | 4 |
| 37 |  Luxembourg | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2:5 | -3 | 3 |
| 38 |  Croatia | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3:12 | -9 | 3 |
| 39 |  Wales | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2:5 | -3 | 3 |
| 40 |  Norway | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 6:8 | -2 | 3 |
| 41 |  Gibraltar | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1:1 | 0 | 2 |
| 42 |  Kazakhstan | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5:7 | -2 | 2 |
| 43 |  Georgia | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0:2 | -2 | 2 |
| 44 |  Israel | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2:7 | -5 | 2 |
| 45 |  Liechtenstein | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0:2 | -2 | 1 |
| 46 |  Andorra | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1:3 | -2 | 1 |
| 47 |  Latvia | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2:6 | -4 | 1 |
| 48 |  Bulgaria | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1:5 | -4 | 1 |
| 49 |  North Macedonia | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0:7 | -7 | 0 |
| 50 |  San Marino | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0:14 | -14 | 0 |
| 51 |  Serbia | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3:8 | -5 | 0 |
| 52 |  Czech Republic | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2:7 | -5 | 0 |
| 53 |  Romania | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3:13 | -10 | 0 |
| 54 | Turkey | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2:11 | -9 | 0 |
Turkey vs Italy Prediction (Sep 28, 2026)
The Turkey vs Italy prediction for this UEFA Nations League clash on September 28, 2026, sees Turkey as a narrow favourite with a 37% win probability according to our analysis. The draw stands at 33%, while Italy holds a 30% chance. The match kicks off at 19:45 local time at Bursa Bรผyรผkลehir Belediye Stadyumu in Bursa, Turkey.
Team Form
Turkey come into this match with mixed recent results. Their last five outings read L, W, W, L, L. They suffered a 0-1 home loss to France in the Nations League on September 25, followed by a 3-0 friendly win over North Macedonia and a 3-2 World Cup victory against the USA. Earlier losses to Paraguay (0-1) and Australia (0-2) highlight defensive issues. Turkey have managed two wins and three defeats in this sequence.
Italyโs form is slightly healthier: L, W, W, D, W from their last five matches. They lost 0-2 at home to Belgium in their most recent Nations League outing, but before that they collected away wins at Greece (1-0) and Luxembourg (1-0), a 1-1 draw in Bosnia-Herzegovina in a World Cup play-off, and a 2-0 home win over Northern Ireland. Italy have three wins, one draw and just one loss in this period.
Head-to-Head Record
There is no previous head-to-head record between Turkey and Italy. The data shows zero wins for either side and no draws, meaning this will be the first competitive meeting between the two nations. The absence of historical data forces the prediction to rely heavily on current form and odds.
League Table Positions
Neither Turkey nor Italy appear in the top 12 of the overall UEFA Nations League standings. Both sides have only played one match in the competition so far โ a loss each. This makes league positions a less reliable factor for this prediction. The limited table data underscores the open nature of this match.
Win Probability: Turkey or Italy?
Our win probability model assigns Turkey a 37% chance, the draw 33%, and Italy 30%. These percentages are derived from the average bookmaker odds (home 2.58, draw 2.69, away 2.80), then adjusted for the home advantage at Bursa and Italyโs slightly stronger recent form. The numbers show a very evenly poised contest. Turkeyโs home edge gives them the highest single-outcome chance, but the draw and an Italian win are nearly as likely.
Odds & Match Prediction
Bookmakers price this match with tight margins. Odds for a Turkey win range from 2.40 to 2.75, a draw is available between 2.18 and 3.56, and an Italy victory sits at 2.62 to 3.00. These numbers confirm the match is considered wide open. Based on the stats, the most probable match outcome is a draw, but Turkeyโs home form could tip it. Our assessment leans towards a low-scoring affair where a single goal may decide the winner, with the draw being a very realistic result.
Turkey vs Italy โ FAQ
- Who will win Turkey vs Italy?
- According to our analysis, Turkey has a 37% chance of winning, the draw stands at 33%, and Italy has a 30% probability. The match is extremely tight, with no clear favourite.
- What is the win probability for Turkey?
- Turkey holds a 37% win probability, making them the slight favourite due to home advantage and slightly shorter bookmaker odds. However, the match is closely contested with a draw and an Italy win also carrying significant chances.
- When is the Turkey vs Italy match?
- The match takes place on September 28, 2026, at 19:45 local time at Bursa Bรผyรผkลehir Belediye Stadyumu in Bursa, Turkey. It is a UEFA Nations League fixture.
- What are the odds for the match?
- Bookmaker odds for a Turkey win vary from 2.40 to 2.75, a draw is priced between 2.18 and 3.56, and an Italy win is offered between 2.62 and 3.00. These odds reflect a very balanced contest.
- Have Turkey and Italy played each other before?
- No, the head-to-head record shows zero wins for either side and zero draws, indicating that Turkey and Italy have never faced each other in a recognized competitive fixture. This will be their first meeting.