Mladost Zdralovi - Jadran Luka Ploce prediction 26 October 2026

Our Jadran Luka Ploce vs Mladost Zdralovi prediction for this Prva HNL match on October 26, 2026, gives the hosts Mladost Zdralovi a 38% win probability, while Jadran Luka Ploce sit at 28% and the draw at 34%. A tight contest is expected between two mid-table sides.

Team Form

Mladost Zdralovi come into this fixture with a mixed run: D, L, W, L, L in their last five matches. A 0-0 draw at home to Jadran Luka Ploce on October 23 was followed by a 1-3 defeat away at Croatia Zmijavci, a 2-1 home win over Cibalia Vinkovci, a 0-1 loss at Dinamo Zagreb II and a 1-3 home reverse against Segesta. That’s one win, one draw and three defeats in the last five.

Jadran Luka Ploce’s last five results read D, D, D, L, W. After the 0-0 draw at Mladost Zdralovi, they drew 4-4 at home with Dugopolje, 1-1 away at Radnik Sesvete, lost 1-2 in a friendly at Zrinjski Mostar and beat Kustosija 1-0 at home. Excluding the friendly, they are unbeaten in four league matches (1W, 3D).

Head-to-Head Record

These teams have met five times recently. Overall, there is one win each and four draws. The most recent clash was just three days ago — a 0-0 stalemate at this venue. Earlier encounters include a 0-0 on April 17, 2026, a 0-2 away win for Mladost Zdralovi on October 18, 2025, a 2-2 draw on May 9, 2025, and a 1-0 home win for Jadran Luka Ploce on November 9, 2024. The H2H record underlines how evenly matched they are.

League Table Positions

In the Prva HNL standings, Jadran Luka Ploce sit 4th with 16 points from 9 games (4W, 4D, 1L), while Mladost Zdralovi are 8th with 14 points from 9 games (4W, 2D, 3L). Home form paints Mladost Zdralovi in a better light: 5th in the home table with 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss (10 points), whereas Jadran Luka Ploce are 6th in the away table with 2 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss (7 points from 4 trips).

Win Probability: Jadran Luka Ploce or Mladost Zdralovi?

After analyzing the odds, team form, home advantage and H2H record, we estimate the following win probabilities: Mladost Zdralovi 38%, draw 34%, Jadran Luka Ploce 28%. Bookmakers’ average odds of 2.17 for a home win imply a 39.7% raw probability, while the away odds of 3.25 translate to 26.5%. We have slightly adjusted the home edge downward due to Jadran Luka Ploce’s better league position and unbeaten league run. The high draw probability reflects four draws in five H2H meetings.

Odds & Match Prediction

Average 1X2 odds across listed bookmakers: Mladost Zdralovi 2.17, draw 2.55, Jadran Luka Ploce 3.25. The market clearly sees Mladost Zdralovi as the favorite. Based on the stats and the defensive pattern in recent head-to-heads, a low-scoring draw is a realistic outcome. However, Mladost Zdralovi’s strong home record (3-1-1) gives them a narrow edge. Our prediction: Mladost Zdralovi to avoid defeat, with the draw being the safest call.