Jaro - Mariehamn prediction 17 October 2026
Jaro
MariehamnJaro
PK-35 VantaaPK-35 VantaaJaroJaroMariehamnTPS TurkuJaroLahtiJaroJaroSeinajoen JKIlvesJaroMariehamnJaroJaroAC OuluHJK HelsinkiJaroJaroVPS VaasaLahtiJaroJaroSeinajoen JKJaroInter TurkuJaroIlvesJaroMariehamnMariehamnIlvesSeinajoen JKMariehamnMariehamnTPS TurkuLahtiMariehamnMariehamnJaroKuPSMariehamnMariehamnSeinajoen JKIlvesMariehamnTPS TurkuMariehamnMariehamnAC OuluMariehamnLahtiGnistanMariehamnVPS VaasaMariehamnMariehamnInter TurkuJaroMariehamnMariehamnJaroJaroMariehamnJaroMariehamnJaroMariehamnMariehamnJaro| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  KuPS | 22 | 12 | 7 | 3 | 38:23 | +15 | 43 |
| 2 |  Inter Turku | 22 | 11 | 9 | 2 | 29:16 | +13 | 42 |
| 3 |  HJK Helsinki | 22 | 11 | 4 | 7 | 36:27 | +9 | 37 |
| 4 |  Gnistan | 22 | 10 | 6 | 6 | 36:29 | +7 | 36 |
| 5 |  AC Oulu | 22 | 10 | 4 | 8 | 25:25 | 0 | 34 |
| 6 |  VPS Vaasa | 22 | 9 | 6 | 7 | 29:22 | +7 | 33 |
| 7 |  Lahti | 22 | 9 | 5 | 8 | 26:19 | +7 | 32 |
| 8 |  TPS Turku | 22 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 28:23 | +5 | 31 |
| 9 |  Ilves | 22 | 7 | 4 | 11 | 34:37 | -3 | 25 |
| 10 |  Seinajoen JK | 22 | 4 | 7 | 11 | 25:33 | -8 | 19 |
| 11 | Jaro | 22 | 3 | 6 | 13 | 18:44 | -26 | 15 |
| 12 | Mariehamn | 22 | 3 | 5 | 14 | 17:43 | -26 | 14 |
Jaro vs Mariehamn Prediction (Oct 17)
Jaro vs Mariehamn prediction for their Veikkausliiga match on Oct 17, 2026 at 12:00. This bottom-of-the-table clash sees Jaro with a 35% chance of winning, the draw at 37%, and Mariehamn at 28%, based on our analysis of odds, form, and head-to-head stats.
Team Form
Jaro's last five matches: W, D, D, L, L. They secured a 1-0 away win at TPS Turku, drew 1-1 with Lahti and 1-1 at home to Seinajoen JK, but lost 2-0 at Ilves and 2-0 at Mariehamn. Their attack has struggled, scoring only 18 goals in 22 league games.
Mariehamn's recent form: D, L, W, L, W. They drew 1-1 at home to Ilves, lost 2-1 at Seinajoen JK, beat TPS Turku 1-0 at home, lost 2-1 at Lahti, and beat Jaro 2-0 at home. With 17 goals in 22 matches, they share similar offensive woes.
Head-to-Head Record
In the last five meetings, Jaro have won twice, Mariehamn twice, and one ended in a draw. The most recent encounter on Aug 31, 2026 saw Mariehamn win 2-0 at home. At Jaro's stadium, the head-to-head is evenly split with one win, one draw, and one loss from the last three.
League Table Positions
Both teams are in the relegation zone. Jaro sit 11th with 15 points from 22 matches (3 wins, 6 draws, 13 losses, goal difference -26). Mariehamn are bottom at 12th with 14 points (3 wins, 5 draws, 14 losses, goal difference -26). The one-point gap and identical goal differences underline how tight this match is.
Win Probability: Jaro or Mariehamn?
After normalizing the bookmakers' odds (home 2.70, draw 2.20, away 3.10) and adjusting for recent form, home advantage, and the balanced head-to-head, we calculate: Jaro win 35%, draw 37%, Mariehamn win 28%. The draw is the most probable outcome, but if there is a winner, Jaro holds a slight edge thanks to home soil and a marginally better league position.
Odds & Match Prediction
The prematch odds are: Jaro 2.70, draw 2.20, Mariehamn 3.10. Bookmakers see the draw as the likeliest result. Considering both sides' poor form and low-scoring records, a stalemate appears the smart pick. Based on the stats, our Jaro vs Mariehamn prediction is a low-scoring draw, with a 1-1 scoreline possible.
Jaro vs Mariehamn โ FAQ
- Who will win Jaro vs Mariehamn?
- Our win probability model gives Jaro a 35% chance, Mariehamn a 28% chance, and a draw 37%. So while the draw is the most likely result, Jaro are slightly more likely to win than their opponents.
- What is the win probability for Jaro?
- Jaro has a 35% chance of winning this match. This is based on odds, home advantage, and their slightly better league position, though their overall form remains poor.
- When is the Jaro vs Mariehamn match?
- The match kicks off on Oct 17, 2026, at 12:00 local time (UTC+1). It is a Veikkausliiga fixture, the top division in Finland.
- What are the odds for the match?
- Prematch odds are: Jaro win 2.70, draw 2.20, Mariehamn win 3.10. These odds indicate that the bookmakers expect a tight, low-scoring contest.
- What is the head-to-head record between Jaro and Mariehamn?
- Over the last five meetings, both teams have won twice and drawn once. The most recent match on Aug 31, 2026 ended in a 2-0 home victory for Mariehamn.