TPV - Jazz prediction 26 September 2026

The TPV vs Jazz prediction for the Ykkonen match on Sep 26, 2026, shows a clear favourite. Based on detailed analysis of team form, head-to-head record and league positions, Jazz have a 55% win probability, the draw sits at 25%, and TPV win is 20%. Jazz are the team to beat.

Team Form

TPV come into this match with mixed results. Their last five matches across all venues have yielded two wins, one draw and two losses (L, W, L, W, D). The most recent outing was a 3-0 away defeat at Inter Turku II. At home, TPV beat KuPS Akatemia 4-2 but lost 0-2 to PK Keski-Uusimaa, showing inconsistency in their own stadium.

Jazz, on the other hand, are in solid shape. Their last five results read L, W, W, D, W, with the only loss being a 0-2 home reverse against VJS Vantaa. Before that, they defeated KPV Kokkola 3-0 and Inter Turku II 2-0, both at home, and posted a 2-0 away win at SalPa. Jazz’s three wins in five, including two clean sheets, underline their defensive strength and momentum.

Head-to-Head Record

The head-to-head numbers heavily favour Jazz. In 10 previous meetings across Ykkonen and Kakkonen, Jazz have won 6, TPV managed just 1 victory, and there have been 3 draws. The last two encounters – both in the 2026 Ykkonen season – ended in Jazz wins: 4-0 at Jazz’s ground in July and 2-0 at TPV’s stadium in May. TPV have not beaten Jazz in any of the last four competitive fixtures, and have failed to score in the two most recent clashes.

League Table Positions

Jazz are firmly in the upper half of the Ykkonen table. They sit 7th overall with 36 points from 24 matches, having scored 35 and conceded 31. TPV are 9th with 27 points, a goal difference of -11 (34 for, 45 against) – nine points and nine places behind their opponents.

The venue split adds further weight to Jazz’s chances. TPV have the 7th-best home record in the league (19 points from 12 home games, scoring 21 and conceding 18). Jazz, however, possess the 2nd-best away record in the entire division: 21 points from 11 away trips, with 18 goals scored and only 13 conceded. They have lost just twice on the road all season.

Win Probability: TPV or Jazz?

Here is the win probability calculation for this fixture, assembled from all available stats:

• Jazz win: 55%
• Draw: 25%
• TPV win: 20%

The reasoning is clear. Jazz dominate the head-to-head (6 wins from 10, and two easy wins in 2026), they are in much better recent form, sit higher in the table, and boast the second-best away record in the league. TPV, while capable at home, have been inconsistent and have already lost to Jazz at this ground this season. The most likely outcome is an away victory.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers’ odds for this Ykkonen match were not available in the supplied data. However, based purely on the statistical profile, Jazz would be clear favorites. Our TPV vs Jazz prediction: Jazz to win. The numbers point strongly towards an away success, and Jazz’s defensive solidity on the road suggests a low-scoring affair, but the value lies with the visitors.