Grobinas SC - Jelgava prediction 12 September 2026

Grobinas SC vs Jelgava prediction: the Virsliga match on Sep 12 at 11:00 is a close lower-table meeting, with Jelgava holding a slight edge at 38% to win. The home team Grobinas SC sit 8th with 24 points, while Jelgava are 7th with 31 points going into this fixture. This preview covers team form, head-to-head record, league table positions, win probability and betting tips.

Team Form

Grobinas SC’s last five results are L, W, L, L, L. Their only win in that sequence was a 1-0 home victory against BFC Daugavpils on Aug 29. The other four results were defeats: 0-1 at Auda, 1-3 at Liepajas Metalurgs, 1-6 at Rigas Futbola Skola and 0-4 at Riga FC. That is 14 goals conceded in those four losses.

Jelgava’s last five results are L, W, W, L, L. They won 4-1 away at Tukums 2000 and 3-2 away at Ogre United, but lost 0-1 at home to FK Progress Super Nova and 1-2 away at BFC Daugavpils.

Head-to-Head Record

The head-to-head data shows a level overall record: 3 home wins, 2 draws, and 3 away wins. The most recent meeting on Jun 29, 2026 ended 2-0 to Jelgava. Grobinas SC won this fixture 3-2 on Aug 29, 2025, and also won 1-0 away at Jelgava on Mar 21, 2026 and Jun 22, 2025. The other listed meeting on May 11, 2026 ended 0-0.

League Table Positions

In the overall standings, Jelgava are 7th with 31 points from 29 matches (8 wins, 7 draws, 14 losses; 32 goals scored, 48 conceded). Grobinas SC are 8th with 24 points from 29 matches (5 wins, 9 draws, 15 losses; 20 goals scored, 51 conceded). The gap is 7 points.

Home and away splits are also close. Grobinas SC rank 8th at home with 14 points from 14 matches (3 wins, 5 draws, 6 losses; 12 goals scored, 19 conceded). Jelgava rank 5th away with 17 points from 14 matches (4 wins, 5 draws, 5 losses; 19 goals scored, 24 conceded).

Win Probability: Grobinas SC or Jelgava?

Based on the available data, Grobinas SC has a 33% chance of winning, the draw is at 29%, and Jelgava has a 38% chance. These probabilities total 100%.

Jelgava’s better overall table position, stronger away record and slightly better recent form give them the edge. The head-to-head record is level, so it does not shift the calculation strongly. Home advantage keeps Grobinas SC close, but their 20 goals scored and 51 conceded across the league season are weaker than Jelgava’s numbers.

Conclusion: Jelgava are the more likely winner, but this is a low-confidence outcome because both teams are in poor form.

Odds & Grobinas SC vs Jelgava Prediction

There are no listed bookmaker odds in the JSON data; the selected market is 1X2. In this 1X2 market, the model-based prediction is a narrow away win for Jelgava. For betting tips, the stats suggest a tight match, with the draw carrying a 29% probability and the away win 38%.