Jerez - Plasencia prediction 21 October 2026

The Jerez vs Plasencia prediction for their Tercera Federacion clash on October 21, 2026 at 18:00 suggests a tight contest. Based on the available data, Jerez has a 38% chance of winning, the draw sits at 29%, and Plasencia has a 33% win probability, making this a highly unpredictable match.

Team Form

Jerez's recent form has been inconsistent, with results showing two wins and three losses in their last five matches (L, W, W, L, L). They suffered a 2-0 away defeat to Azuaga on Sep 27 and a 2-0 loss at Villanovense on Apr 26. Their victories came with a 1-0 win at CD Cabeza del Buey and a dominant 5-1 home win over Montehermoso on May 10.

Plasencia's form has been more balanced, recording two draws, two wins, and one loss in their last five (D, W, D, W, L). Most recently, they drew 0-0 at home against CD Quintanar on Oct 11 and beat Nuevo Caceres SF 3-2 away on Oct 4. A 5-0 loss to Montehermoso on Jun 22 remains a poor result in their recent record.

Head-to-Head Record

The head-to-head record strongly favors Plasencia, who have won both previous encounters. Both matches took place on December 8, 2017 in the Tercera Federacion, where Plasencia beat Jerez 3-2 at home. Jerez has yet to secure a win or even a draw against Plasencia in their history.

League Table Positions

Neither Jerez nor Plasencia currently appears in the provided league standings. The table includes teams like CD Boiro (1st, 13 points), CD Barco, and Antela FC, but the two sides in this fixture are not listed in the top 12 overall, home, or away standings. This suggests both may be positioned lower in the division or their data is unavailable in this dataset.

Win Probability: Jerez or Plasencia?

Our win probability calculation gives Jerez a 38% chance, the draw a 29% probability, and Plasencia a 33% chance of winning. These percentages are derived from the available bookmaker odds, where one bookmaker prices Jerez at 2.25 (44% implied probability) and the draw at 2.25 (44%), making the market over-round. After removing the margin and blending the second bookmaker's odds (home 1.65, draw 3.45, away 4.20), the adjusted probabilities shift. The historic H2H record (2 wins for Plasencia) boosts the away side's chances, but Jerez's home venue factor and slightly better recent goal-scoring form (5 goals against Montehermoso) balances the outlook. Given the lack of a clear league position advantage for either side, this remains a closely matched affair. Based on the stats, Jerez holds a marginal edge in win probability, but the draw and a Plasencia result are very plausible outcomes.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers offer varied views on this match. One firm lists odds of 2.25 for a Jerez win, 2.25 for the draw, and 4.50 for a Plasencia win, while another prices the home win at 1.65, the draw at 3.45, and the away win at 4.20. The discrepancy in home win odds (from 1.65 to 2.25) underlines the uncertainty. Bookmakers see Jerez as the favorite, but the equal odds of 2.25 from one source for home and draw indicate hesitation. Our match prediction is that this will be a low-scoring game with a high chance of a draw, as both teams have shown defensive frailties but lack the consistency to dominate. Based on the stats, a score draw looks a more likely outcome than a clear winner.