JK Nomme Kalju II - FC Tallinn prediction 24 October 2026

The JK Nomme Kalju II vs FC Tallinn prediction for October 24, 2026, sees the hosts as slight favorites in this Esiliiga clash. The match kicks off at 10:30 local time, with bookmakers pricing JK Nomme Kalju II at 2.20 odds, giving them a modest edge. Based on our win probability analysis, JK Nomme Kalju II has a 40% chance of winning, the draw stands at 24%, and FC Tallinn is assigned a 36% chance.

Team Form

JK Nomme Kalju II are struggling for form, going winless in their last five outings, with a draw against Elva (0-0) and losses to Levadia Tallinn II, Nomme United 2, Tartu JK Welco Elekter, and Flora Tallinn II. They managed just one point from a possible 15 and conceded heavily in a 5-1 defeat to Flora Tallinn II. Their only recent positive was a goalless stalemate at home.

FC Tallinn's form is also poor overall, with three defeats in their last five including heavy losses to Viimsi MRJK (0-3) and a devastating 0-7 home loss to Tartu JK Welco Elekter. However, they did manage a morale-boosting 2-1 win away at Flora Tallinn II. Defensively, they've leaked 12 goals in two of those recent Esiliiga matches, highlighting major vulnerabilities at the back.

Head-to-Head Record

This fixture has heavily favored FC Tallinn historically. In eight meetings, FC Tallinn owns six wins to JK Nomme Kalju II's two, with no draws. The most recent encounter on August 29, 2026, saw JK Nomme Kalju II claim a 2-0 away victory, breaking a run of five straight wins for FC Tallinn in this matchup. Earlier in 2026, FC Tallinn won home (6-3) and away (3-1), and also triumphed 4-0 in a friendly.

League Table Positions

Both teams occupy the bottom two spots in the Esiliiga standings. FC Tallinn sit 9th with 35 points from 33 matches, having won 9, drawn 8, and lost 16 with a goal difference of -35. JK Nomme Kalju II are bottom of the table in 10th place with 24 points from 33 games, recording just 6 wins, 6 draws, and 21 losses, with a -42 goal difference. Away from home, FC Tallinn have collected 16 points from 16 matches, ranking them 7th on away form.

Win Probability: JK Nomme Kalju II or FC Tallinn?

Analyzing the available data, the win probability for this match is calculated as follows: JK Nomme Kalju II has a 40% chance of winning, the draw has a 24% chance, and FC Tallinn has a 36% chance. These probabilities are derived by normalizing the inverse of the available odds (2.20 for a home win, 3.85 for a draw, and 2.45 for an away win) to remove the bookmaker margin, then slightly adjusting based on team form and head-to-head records. The home side gets a marginal probability boost due to the venue factor, but FC Tallinn's dominance in the H2H (six wins out of eight) and slightly better league standing prevent the hosts from being a clear favorite. Overall, it's a tight contest where neither team can be ruled out, but JK Nomme Kalju II holds the narrowest of advantages according to the numbers.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers see JK Nomme Kalju II as the favorite with odds of 2.20 for a home win. The draw is priced at 3.85, and an FC Tallinn away victory can be backed at 2.45. Based on the stats, the prediction is cautious: JK Nomme Kalju II are favored by the odds but their recent form and poor head-to-head record against FC Tallinn make them a risky bet. The match carries a high chance of goals based on both teams' defensive records, but the outcome remains uncertain.