Parnu JK Vaprus - JK Nomme Kalju prediction 13 October 2026

The Parnu JK Vaprus vs JK Nomme Kalju prediction for October 13, 2026, in the Estonian Meistriliiga points toward an away victory, but the match remains more open than the overall table suggests. Based on head-to-head stats, recent form, and league positions, JK Nomme Kalju holds a 45% win probability, a draw sits at 25%, and Parnu JK Vaprus has a 30% chance of winning at home.

Team Form

Parnu JK Vaprus comes into this game with a mixed last five: L, L, L, W, W. The three consecutive defeats all came on the road – against Flora Tallinn (3-2), Paide Linnameeskond (2-0), and Levadia Tallinn (4-0) – but the two home wins over Harju JK Laagri (3-2) and Nomme United (1-0) showed they can be competitive at their own ground. JK Nomme Kalju’s recent sequence reads W, W, L, L, L. They started with away and home victories against Tammeka Tartu (3-1) and JK Narva Trans (2-0) but then stumbled – losing at home to Nomme United (1-2), away to Flora Tallinn (2-1), and at home to Levadia Tallinn (2-3).

Head-to-Head Record

The all-time H2H record heavily favors JK Nomme Kalju: 24 wins for the away side, 4 draws, and only 5 victories for Parnu JK Vaprus. However, recent meetings paint a more balanced picture. In the last five clashes, Parnu has won three times (including a 3-1 home win in May 2026 and a 2-1 away win in April 2026), while JK Nomme Kalju has won twice (3-1 at home in August 2026 and 1-0 at home in October 2025). There has been no draw in those five most recent contests.

League Table Positions

After 29 rounds, JK Nomme Kalju sits 4th in the Meistriliiga with 50 points (15 wins, 5 draws, 9 losses, goal difference 52:27). Parnu JK Vaprus is 7th with 34 points (10 wins, 4 draws, 15 losses, goal difference 39:57). At home, Parnu ranks 5th with 23 points from 14 games (7 wins, 2 draws, 5 losses, 24:22 goals). On the road, JK Nomme Kalju is also 4th with 26 points from 14 matches (8 wins, 2 draws, 4 losses, 20:10 goals). The 16-point gap underlines Kalju’s superior season, yet Parnu’s home form narrows the on-paper difference.

Win Probability: Parnu JK Vaprus or JK Nomme Kalju?

Parnu JK Vaprus has a 30% chance of winning, the draw is at 25%, and JK Nomme Kalju has a 45% chance. These figures are derived from the overall H2H dominance of JK Nomme Kalju, their higher league position, and a stronger defensive record away from home. The probability is tempered by Parnu’s recent home wins and the fact that the last five H2H meetings produced three Parnu victories. Therefore, while the visitors are the more likely winner, the hosts have a genuine chance of taking points.

Odds & Match Prediction

No odds were available for this fixture at the time of writing. Based on the statistics, JK Nomme Kalju enters as the favorite – their away record against Parnu historically and their top-four standing support that view. However, Parnu JK Vaprus’s solid home performances against teams of a similar level and their recent H2H wins mean the match could easily see a draw or a narrow home success. The likeliest outcome remains an away win, but a bet on a double chance for the visitors or under 2.5 goals may be worth considering once odds are released.