Justo Jose Urquiza - Leandro Niceforo Alem prediction 28 September 2026

Our Justo Jose Urquiza vs Leandro Niceforo Alem prediction for this Primera C Metropolitana fixture on Sep 28, 2026 gives the home side a 45% win probability. Bookmakers have installed Justo Jose Urquiza as the narrow favourite, but the odds suggest a tight contest with a draw rated highly. Below we break down all the key stats, form, and head-to-head data that shape this match prediction.

Team Form

Justo Jose Urquiza head into this match with mixed results. Their last five outings read: D, D, W, L, W. Two recent 0‑0 draws – away at Defensores de Cambaceres and at home against General Lamadrid – have been balanced by earlier wins against Juventud Unida San Miguel (2‑0) and Argentino de Rosario (2‑1). The only defeat in that spell was a 2‑1 loss at Sacachispas. Overall, the hosts have kept two clean sheets in their last three and are averaging a goal per game across their last five.

Leandro Niceforo Alem, by contrast, are in poor form. Their last five results: L, D, L, L, L. A 1‑0 home loss to Club Mercedes, a 0‑0 draw at CSCyD Muniz, and heavy defeats to Deportivo Paraguayo (4‑1), Puerto Nuevo (3‑0), and Juventud Unida San Miguel (2‑1) underline a team struggling for consistency. The visitors have scored just once in their last four matches and have conceded 10 goals in their last five.

Head-to-Head Record

The historical head‑to‑head heavily favours Justo Jose Urquiza. Across 10 meetings, the home side tonight has 8 wins, Leandro Niceforo Alem has 1 win, and there has been 1 draw. The most recent clash (May 31, 2026) saw Leandro Niceforo Alem win 2‑0 at home, but prior to that Justo Jose Urquiza had won three in a row, including a 1‑0 home victory in March 2025 and a 3‑0 away success in May 2023. On this ground, Justo Jose Urquiza remain unbeaten in the last four H2H meetings, with three wins and one draw.

League Table Positions

Neither Justo Jose Urquiza nor Leandro Niceforo Alem appear in the published top 12 of the Primera C Metropolitana standings. This suggests both sides are situated in the lower half of the table. While exact positions are not available, the contrasting recent form indicates Justo Jose Urquiza are likely in a stronger position, having picked up points more consistently than their leaky opponents.

Win Probability: Justo Jose Urquiza or Leandro Niceforo Alem?

Our win probability calculation, based on bookmaker odds, team form, head‑to‑head record, and home advantage, yields the following percentages:

• Justo Jose Urquiza win: 45%
• Draw: 35%
• Leandro Niceforo Alem win: 20%

We started with the inverse of the average odds (normalised to remove margin). The raw odds‑implied chances were roughly 37.6% home win, 41.9% draw, and 20.5% away win. However, the massive home H2H advantage (8‑1‑1 record) and the visitors’ dreadful run of one point from five games tilted the probabilities significantly. Justo Jose Urquiza’s solid home form (one loss in five) and Leandro Niceforo Alem’s scoring woes (1 goal in four) reinforce the home side as the most likely outright winner, albeit with a draw still a credible outcome.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers’ pre‑match odds for the 1X2 market show a close betting heat. Across the four sets of odds provided:

• Justo Jose Urquiza win odds range from 2.14 to 2.75
• Draw odds range from 1.72 to 2.75 (with most books offering around 1.72‑2.15)
• Leandro Niceforo Alem win odds range from 3.50 to 4.75

While the short draw odds suggest the market sees a stalemate as a strong possibility, our analysis of the teams’ recent trajectories and the historical head‑to‑head tips the balance toward the hosts. Based on the stats, we predict a home win for Justo Jose Urquiza.