Ntugasaze - Kampala Capital City Authority prediction 13 October 2026

The Ntugasaze vs Kampala Capital City Authority prediction for Oct 13, 2026 focuses on a Ugandan Premier League clash where the visitors enter as favorites with a 46% win probability. Ntugasaze’s recent struggles and a poor league standing make an upset unlikely, though a draw (35%) remains a real possibility. Kick-off is at 14:00 local time.

Team Form

Ntugasaze come into this match with a worrying run of form, having lost four of their last five fixtures (W1, L4). Their only victory in that span was a 1-0 home win over Mbarara City FC on Oct 7. Prior to that, they suffered heavy defeats: 3-0 away to Vipers SC, 4-1 at Bul FC, 1-3 at home against Maroons, and a 1-0 loss at Blacks Power/Bukedea TC. They have conceded nine goals in those five games while scoring only three times.

Kampala Capital City Authority, on the other hand, are showing signs of improvement. Their last five results are W, W, D, L, L. They secured back-to-back 1-0 wins against URA FC (away) and Kataka FC (home) in October and September. A 0-0 draw at Kigezi Homeboys and defeats to Express FC (0-2) and NEC Bugolobi (0-2) show some inconsistency, but their away record is respectable, with only one loss in three road matches.

Head-to-Head Record

There is no head-to-head history recorded between Ntugasaze and Kampala Capital City Authority. The two sides have not met previously in competitive fixtures, so this encounter will be a first-time clash. Without prior meetings, the form and league table data become even more important for this Ntugasaze vs Kampala Capital City Authority prediction.

League Table Positions

Kampala Capital City Authority occupy 10th place in the overall Premier League standings with 7 points from 5 matches (2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses). They have scored just 2 goals and conceded 4, suggesting tight, low-scoring matches. In away games, they are ranked 6th with 4 points from 3 outings (1W, 1D, 1L). Ntugasaze do not appear in the top 12 of the table, implying they are struggling near the bottom. This gulf in positions further tilts the balance toward the away side.

Win Probability: Ntugasaze or Kampala Capital City Authority?

Here are the outcome probabilities calculated for this match:

• Ntugasaze win: 19%
• Draw: 35%
• Kampala Capital City Authority win: 46%

These percentages were derived from available bookmaker odds (removing the margin), then adjusted for team form, head-to-head data (none), league positions, and home/away performance. Two realistic odds sets were used: one implied a home win chance of ~18%, a draw ~42%, and an away win ~40%; the other showed home ~19%, draw ~27%, away ~54%. Averaging and weighting based on Ntugasaze’s dreadful form and KCCA’s superior away results leads to the final numbers. Kampala Capital City Authority clearly has the highest likelihood of winning, but the draw cannot be ignored.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers show varied odds for this Uganda Premier League contest. A Ntugasaze win is priced around 4.75–4.80, the draw between 2.08 and 3.30, and a Kampala Capital City Authority victory at 1.67–2.18. The wide draw range reflects some market disagreement, but overall, the odds frame KCCA as the favorite. Based on the stats and these betting tips, the most probable outcome is an away win, though a low-scoring draw also remains a strong possibility. For bettors, the Kampala Capital City Authority win offers limited value at short odds, while the draw could attract those looking for a higher return.