Karaman Belediyespor - Kepez Spor Futbol AS prediction 16 September 2026

The Karaman Belediyespor vs Kepez Spor Futbol AS prediction for this Cup match on Sep 16 at 11:00 sees the bookmakers struggling to separate the sides. Based on the latest odds and team form, Karaman Belediyespor enters as a marginal favorite with a 38% win probability, though a draw is also a very strong possibility.

Team Form

Karaman Belediyespor's recent form is mixed, with results reading W, L, L, D, L in their last five matches. Their most recent outing was a 3-2 home victory against Beykoz Anadoluspor on Apr 25. However, defensive frailties are a concern, having conceded 4 goals to Muglaspor and 5 to Ankaraspor in recent weeks.

Kepez Spor Futbol AS is in a dire run of form, losing their last five matches: L, L, L, L, L. Their latest result was a 0-2 home defeat to Anadolu Universitesi on Sep 06. The team has struggled at both ends of the pitch, notably suffering a 6-0 thrashing against Batman Petrolspor in April.

Head-to-Head Record

These two sides have met twice before. Kepez Spor Futbol AS holds the edge with one win and one draw. The most recent encounter on Jan 18, 2026, saw Kepez Spor Futbol AS thrash Karaman Belediyespor 4-0 away from home. The earlier fixture on Aug 30, 2025, ended in a 0-0 draw.

League Table Positions

This is a Cup match, so league table positions from their respective 2 Lig and 3 Lig campaigns are not directly comparable for this specific fixture. However, the recent form data suggests both teams have been struggling for consistency in their league outings.

Win Probability: Karaman Belediyespor or Kepez Spor Futbol AS?

Analyzing the odds, team form, and head-to-head record, we calculate the win probabilities as follows: Karaman Belediyespor has a 38% chance of winning, the draw is at 35%, and Kepez Spor Futbol AS has a 27% chance. This calculation is based on the inverse of the most balanced bookmaker odds (home 2.50, draw 2.30, away 3.10), normalized to remove the margin, and then adjusted downwards for Kepez Spor Futbol AS due to their five-match losing streak. Karaman Belediyespor's home advantage is offset by their poor defensive record and the heavy 4-0 loss in the last H2H meeting, making a stalemate a very likely outcome.

Odds & Match Prediction

The odds for this match vary across bookmakers. The most balanced market sees a home win priced around 2.50, a draw at 2.30, and an away win at 3.10. Other bookmakers offer a home win as low as 2.45 and an away win as high as 3.10. Notably, one outlier bookmaker has the draw priced extremely low at 1.02, which significantly skews the average but is not representative of the general market. Based on the stats, the value appears to be in the draw market, given both teams' inconsistent form and the history of a stalemate between them.