Keith - Turriff United prediction 7 October 2026

Keith vs Turriff United prediction for the Highland League match on October 7, 2026, at 20:00. Our analysis gives Keith a 40% chance of winning, with the draw at 30% and Turriff United at 30%. Bookmakers see a tight contest, but Keith’s dominant head-to-head record and home advantage tilt the probabilities in their favour.

Team Form

Keith come into this match with a mixed run of results: L, L, L, W, W in their last five outings. They suffered heavy defeats against Brora Rangers (5-0) and Banks O'Dee (4-1), and a narrow 3-2 loss to Strathspey Thistle, before bouncing back with wins over Deveronvale (2-0) and Buckie Thistle (3-2). Defensive frailties are a concern, but they have shown they can score at home.

Turriff United’s recent form reads D, W, W, L, L. They drew 1-1 with Tranent Juniors in the FA Cup, then beat Rothes 4-1 and Huntly 2-1, but lost to Inverurie Loco Works (3-1) and Brora Rangers (3-1). Like Keith, they have been inconsistent and vulnerable at the back.

Head-to-Head Record

The head-to-head record heavily favours Keith. In the last five meetings, Keith have won four and drawn one, with Turriff United yet to register a victory. The most recent clash on March 21, 2026, ended 2-1 to Keith away from home. The only draw was a 0-0 stalemate at Keith in October 2025. Keith have kept clean sheets in two of those wins, highlighting their defensive edge in this fixture.

Win Probability: Keith or Turriff United?

Based on the available odds, team form, and head-to-head record, we calculate the following win probabilities:

• Keith win: 40%
• Draw: 30%
• Turriff United win: 30%

The bookmakers’ implied probabilities from the first set of odds (2.75 home, 2.40 draw, 2.88 away) suggested a draw was the most likely outcome at 36.96%, with Keith at 32.25% and Turriff at 30.79%. However, Keith’s unbeaten H2H record (4W-1D-0L) and home advantage justify an upward adjustment for a home win, while the draw and away win probabilities are slightly reduced. Keith’s recent poor form prevents a more confident projection, but they remain the most probable winner.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers offer varying odds for this Highland League fixture. One bookie prices a Keith win at 2.75, the draw at 2.40, and a Turriff United victory at 2.88. Another lists Keith as short as 2.20, with the draw at 3.60 and Turriff at 2.62. These odds reflect the competitive nature of the match, with no clear standout favourite.

Our prediction: based on the stats, Keith are the more likely winners, but a draw is a strong possibility. The head-to-head dominance cannot be ignored, and home soil gives Keith an extra edge. A 1-0 or 2-1 scoreline in Keith’s favour looks plausible, though a low-scoring draw is also a realistic outcome.