Kep - Kampot prediction 9 September 2026

Kep vs Kampot prediction for the Cambodia Cup match on September 9, 2026. Kampot is the clear favorite with a 55% chance of winning, while Kep has only a 25% chance, and a draw stands at 20%. This analysis delves into team form, head-to-head record, and betting odds to help you decide who will win.

Team Form

Kep's recent form is poor: they have drawn two and lost three of their last five matches. Their last five results: 3-3 draw vs Koh Kong, 3-3 draw vs Preah Sihanouk, 0-2 loss to Kampot, 3-7 loss to Kampot, and 0-8 loss to Preah Sihanouk. They have not won a single match in this period, conceding 22 goals across these games, an average of 4.4 goals per match. Their defense looks extremely vulnerable.

Kampot's away form shows one win, one draw, and three losses in their last five away matches: 2-3 loss to Preah Sihanouk, 0-1 loss to Koh Kong, 2-0 win over Kep, 1-3 loss to Phnom Penh Galaxy, and 2-2 draw with Phnom Penh Galaxy. While not stellar, they have at least secured a victory and kept a clean sheet against Kep, scoring 5 goals in these five away games. Kampot's attack has been inconsistent, but they tend to find the net against weaker defenses.

Head-to-Head Record

In the head-to-head record, Kampot leads with 6 wins to Kep's 4, with 1 draw. The last five meetings: Kampot 2-0 Kep (Jul 2026), Kep 3-7 Kampot (Sep 2025), Kampot 3-2 Kep (Aug 2025), Kampot 3-3 Kep (Aug 2023), Kep 0-2 Kampot (Jun 2023). Kampot has won three of the last five, including the most recent clash, and has scored 10 goals in those five matches against Kep. This dominance suggests Kampot has a psychological edge.

Win Probability: Kep or Kampot?

Based on odds, form, H2H, and home advantage, we calculate the probabilities: Kep win 25%, draw 20%, Kampot win 55%. The odds implied probabilities after removing the margin were 36.7% for Kep, 17.1% for the draw, and 46.1% for Kampot. We adjusted them downward for Kep due to their terrible recent form—no wins in five games and a leaky defense—and slightly upward for the draw and Kampot win. Despite playing at home, Kep's poor form negates any home advantage. Kampot's away record is mixed, but their superior head-to-head and Kep's defensive frailties tip the balance in their favor. Therefore, Kampot is the most likely winner.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers' odds: Kep 2.45, Draw 5.25, Kampot 1.95. These odds indicate Kampot as the favorite with an implied probability of 46.1% after margin removal. The draw odds of 5.25 suggest a low probability of a stalemate, but our analysis gives it a 20% chance, which is higher than the implied odds. Our prediction: Kampot to win. However, given both teams' inconsistent form, a draw is a real possibility. The total goals might be high, considering Kep's leaky defense and Kampot's recent scoring. For betting tips, backing Kampot to win at 1.95 offers value relative to our estimated 55% win chance. Always check the latest odds and team news before placing a bet.