Preah Sihanouk - Kep prediction 23 September 2026

Preah Sihanouk vs Kep prediction: this Cup match in Cambodia is scheduled for Sep 23, 2026 at 09:30. Bookmakers make Preah Sihanouk the favorite, and the win probability model gives the home side a 48% chance to win, with the draw at 20% and Kep at 32%.

Team Form

Preah Sihanouk's last five results in the Cup are D, W, D, D, L. That is one win, three draws, and one defeat. Recent matches include a 3-2 home win over Kampot on Aug 25 and draws with Koh Kong on Sep 8, Kep on Aug 12, and Koh Kong again on Jul 28. The only loss in this sequence was a 0-3 away defeat against Lion King Siem Reap FC on Nov 12, 2025.

Kep's last five results are D, D, D, L, L. They have not won in five matches. Recent results include a 1-1 home draw with Kampot on Sep 9, a 3-3 home draw with Koh Kong on Aug 26, a 3-3 draw with Preah Sihanouk on Aug 12, and a 0-2 away defeat against Kampot on Jul 29. Their previous match in this run was a 3-7 home loss to Kampot on Sep 16, 2025.

Head-to-Head Record

Recent head-to-head meetings strongly favor Preah Sihanouk. In the last five encounters, Preah Sihanouk have three wins and two draws; Kep have not won in this span. The most recent meeting on Aug 12, 2026 ended in a 3-3 draw. Before that, Preah Sihanouk won 8-0 on Sep 2, 2025, 4-2 on Jul 22, 2025, and 4-0 on Aug 29, 2023. Another match on Oct 29, 2024 ended 1-1.

• Aug 12, 2026: Kep 3-3 Preah Sihanouk
• Sep 2, 2025: Preah Sihanouk 8-0 Kep
• Jul 22, 2025: Kep 2-4 Preah Sihanouk
• Oct 29, 2024: Preah Sihanouk 1-1 Kep
• Aug 29, 2023: Kep 0-4 Preah Sihanouk

Win Probability: Preah Sihanouk or Kep?

Based on the odds and recent team data, Preah Sihanouk has a 48% chance of winning, the draw is at 20%, and Kep has a 32% chance. The bookmaker odds are 1.95 for a home win, 4.75 for the draw, and 2.62 for an away win. After removing the bookmaker margin, the implied probabilities are about 46% for Preah Sihanouk, 19% for the draw, and 35% for Kep. We have slightly increased the home side's probability because of their strong head-to-head record and home advantage, while Kep's poor away form reduces their chance.

Preah Sihanouk is the more likely winner, but the draw is a realistic outcome because both teams have recorded several draws recently. Home advantage also supports Preah Sihanouk: they scored eight goals in one previous home match against Kep. Kep have conceded at least two goals in four of their last five H2H meetings.

Odds & Match Prediction

The 1X2 odds are: Preah Sihanouk 1.95, Draw 4.75, Kep 2.62. Bookmakers see Preah Sihanouk as the favorite. That matches the head-to-head trend, where Preah Sihanouk have not lost to Kep in the last five meetings.

Our final Preah Sihanouk vs Kep prediction is a home win or draw. The best betting tips based on the stats are to back Preah Sihanouk to win, but the draw at 4.75 could offer value because both teams have drawn three of their last five matches.